The Cannabis Effect on Crime: Time-Series Analysis of Crime in Colorado and Washington State

Abstract

Previous studies based on relatively weak analytical designs lacking contextualization and appropriate comparisons have reported that the legalization of marijuana has either increased or decreased crime. Recognizing the importance for public policy making of more robust research designs in this area during a period of continuing reform of state marijuana laws, this study uses a quasi-experimental, multi-group interrupted time-series design to determine if, and how, UCR crime rates in Colorado and Washington, the first two states to legalize marijuana, were influenced by it. Our results suggest that marijuana legalization and sales have had minimal to no effect on major crimes in Colorado or Washington. We observed no statistically significant long-term effects of recreational cannabis laws or the initiation of retail sales on violent or property crime rates in these states.

The Spillover Effect of Recreational Marijuana Legalization on Crime: Evidence From Neighboring States of Colorado and Washington State

“…This finding challenges the argument made by the opponents of legalization that marijuana legalization would increase crime (Trilling, 2016). As previously mentioned, there exist competing views about whether legalization would increase or decrease crime, and the available limited evidence specifically examining the impact of recreational marijuana legalization on crime is mixed and inconclusive (Lu et al, 2019). However, the results of this study suggest that marijuana legalization in neighboring states may not work against the states that have not legalized in terms of its impact on crime, as we did not detect any increases in the rates of multiple types of crimes in border counties of the nonlegalized states neighboring Colorado and Washington.…”

“…In another study examining the impact of both medical and recreational marijuana outlets on crime, Hughes et al (2020) found that both types of marijuana outlets were positively related to increases in rates of a variety of crimes and neighborhood disorder in Denver. As scholars have reasoned, the criminogenic effect of recreational marijuana dispensaries is largely attributable to the fact that marijuana sale is a cash-and-carry business, which exposes both the business and customers to criminal victimization (Freisthler et al, 2017;Lu et al, 2019). Deriving from the routine activity theory is the argument that marijuana dispensaries create opportunity for the convergence of motivated offenders and suitable targets at the same place and time (Boggess et al, 2014;Glensor & Peak, 2004;Morrison et al, 2014;Wright & Decker, 2011).…”

“…Other states considering legalization need more empirical evidence based on methodologically sound research to guide those decisions. However, a review of literature suggests studies examining the impact of recreational marijuana legalization on crime are still very limited (Brinkman & Mok-Lamme, 2019;Dragone et al, 2019;Freisthler et al, 2017;Hao & Cowan, 2020;Hughes et al, 2020;Lu et al, 2019;Makin et al, 2019). Notably, although there is growing scholarly attention paid to legalization's effects on crime-related outcomes in the states that have legalized, with an emphasis on Colorado and Washington State-the two states that first legalized marijuana for recreational use-research examining how legalization affects crime in neighboring states (states that have not legalized recreational marijuana but share borders with legalized states) is very rare.…”

Toward a “Post-Legalization” Criminology for Cannabis: A Brief Review and Suggested Agenda for Research Priorities

“…Early assessments of the impacts of cannabis legalization on (mostly US-based) population-level crime found that it is either not associated with differences, or rather associated with slight decreases in the incidence of specific types of (e.g., property, violent) crimes, when compared to non-legalization states. Thus, current evidence does not point to criminogenic effects attributable to liberalization policies (Brinkman & Mok-Lamme, 2019;Dragone et al, 2019;Lu et al, 2019;Maier et al, 2017;Morris et al, 2014;Shepard & Blackley, 2016). These outcomes are important towards public healthand safety-related considerations for different cannabis control options, and so warrant further thorough examination.…”

Violence and Cannabis Use: A Focused Review of a Forgotten Aspect in the Era of Liberalizing Cannabis

“…robbery and aggravated assault). At the state-level, Lu et al (97), comparing rates of crime in Washington and Colorado to states not legalizing cannabis, found some immediate increases in crime at the point of recreational legalization. Moreover, Lin et al (98) conducted a non-peer reviewed quasi-experimental difference-in-difference analysis to study the potential effect of cannabis use on domestic violence by exploiting municipal and temporal variations in the enactment of recreational cannabis laws in Denver-Aurora-Lakewood Metropolitan Statistical Area from 2011 to 2016.…”