The challenge of adapting grapevine varieties to climate change

Abstract

Climate change is expected to advance grapevine phenological stages. After the calibration and the validation of a degree-days model, we were able to accurately simulate dates of budbreak, flowering and véraison for Riesling and Gewurztraminer, 2 winegrape varieties grown in Alsace, France. Projected daily temperatures were calculated for the local meteorological station with the ARPEGE-Climat general circulation model using 3 distinct greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Compared with its timing in 1976-2008, véraison is predicted to advance by up to 23 d and mean temperatures during the 35 d following véraison are projected to increase by more than 7°C by the end of the 21st century for both varieties. Such changes will likely have a significant impact on grape and wine quality. Using the same framework, the genetic variability of phenological parameters was explored with 120 genotypes of progeny from a Riesling × Gewurztraminer cross, along with 14 European varieties. In addition, we created a virtual late ripening genotype, derived from a cross between Riesling and Gewurztraminer. This modelled genotype was projected to undergo véraison 2 to 3 d before Muscat of Alexandria, one of the latest ripening varieties studied. Even with this virtual genotype, or with Muscat of Alexandria, grapes would ripen by the middle of the 21st century under higher temperatures than in the present years. This study highlights the important changes that viticulture will likely face in a future warmer climate and emphasises the need to create very late ripening genotypes or genotypes able to produce high quality wines under elevated temperatures. KEY WORDS: Grapevine · Climatic change · Phenology · Temperature · Genetic variabilityResale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisher Clim Res 41: 193-204, 2010 direct experimental data, this is certainly true for terpenols, the molecules responsible for floral aromas (Bureau et al. 2000). The idea that increasing temperatures can lower the quality of grapes and wines is widely accepted (Jackson & Lombard 1993, Jones et al. 2005.Possible responses towards the projected future warming in vineyards include (1) accepting changes in the typicity of wines and altering production accordingly, going as far as producing red wines or dessert wines instead of white wines; (2) adapting varieties in order to maintain a constant typicity; and (3) moving grapevine cultivation to areas that are presently cooler (e.g. higher elevations).Alsace is a white-wine-producing region in northeastern France, and the evolution of phenological stages during the past decades and the consequences for grapevine physiology have been described (Duchêne & Schneider 2005). The next logical steps in this line of study are to assess the future climatic conditions in this region, to evaluate their impact on the currently cultivated varieties and to determine which varieties could be adapted in the future.Three main phenological stages can be used to describe the grapevine developme...

Plant adaptation to climate change—opportunities and priorities in breeding

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Viticulture in southwest Germany under climate change conditions

“…Jones et al 2005, Maracchi et al 2005, Petgen 2007, Mariani et al 2009) as are further effects on phenological events, such as of their timing (e.g. Schultz et al 2005, Webb et al 2007, Duchêne et al 2010. A possible further climate-related negative effect is an increased occurrence of grapevine diseases and pests (Petgen 2007).…”

Changes in the phenology and composition of wine from Franconia, Germany

“…Global warming may also result in a shift in the distribution of grape cultivation, meaning that wine production might become profitable in regions formerly unsuitable or marginal for wine-growing (Lisek 2008). Most wine-producing regions in Western and Central Europe have benefitted from increasing temperatures, but the impact of global warming obviously varies according to the type of wine produced and the geographical location (Webb et al 2007, Duchêne et al 2010, Hall & Jones 2010. East of the Rhine River, the northern limit of wine production turns gradually southward as the moderating influence of the Gulf Stream and surrounding seas decline.…”