The challenges of Consolidation of a Drought-Related Disaster Risk Warning System to Brazil

Cunha, Ana Paula; Marchezini, Víctor; Lindoso, Diego; Saito, Silvia Midori; Alvalá, Regina Célia dos Santos

doi:10.18472/sustdeb.v10n1.2019.19380

Cited by 17 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…Can this risk equation be applied to the four axes of warning systems-risk knowledge, monitoring, communication, and response capability? During the course of doing interdisciplinary projects at the warning agency, we designed some conceptual frameworks considering the four axes of EWSs, the potential research topics, methods, policies, and responsible agencies (Anderson et al 2019;Cunha et al 2019). But sometimes there were competing hazards in the monitoring room routine, one would be prioritized and an equitable multi-hazards approach would be undermined.…”

Section: Challenges Of Interdisciplinary Projectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“What is a Sociologist Doing Here?” An Unconventional People-Centered Approach to Improve Warning Implementation in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction

Marchezini

2020

Int J Disaster Risk Sci

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The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 recommends several actions for early warning systems (EWSs). However, there is a lack of information about their means of implementation. This article used institutional ethnography to analyze the 2012-2018 implementation of a national warning system in Brazil. The challenges related to daily activities, and the interdisciplinary works in the four axes of EWSs towards multi-hazard and people-centered approaches are discussed. This national experience is then discussed in the light of the global challenges of EWSs considering two main issues: (1) experiences of implementation and barriers related to people-centered warning systems; and (2) types of national/regional warning systems and hazards/ threats that are being monitored as an important input for multi-hazard approaches. There are few multi-hazard warning systems in place and EWSs are focused on hydrometeorological hazards, mainly related to floods. The Sendai Framework needs to improve access to data and information, identify views from the frontline, consider political threats and vulnerabilities, and find ways to talk about disaster risk creation processes at a larger scale.

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Section: Challenges Of Interdisciplinary Projectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“What is a Sociologist Doing Here?” An Unconventional People-Centered Approach to Improve Warning Implementation in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction

Marchezini

2020

Int J Disaster Risk Sci

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“…15,16 Some of the most vulnerable populations in Brazil reside in the Northeast and Amazon regions, where much of the population have no access to water resources and rely on rainwater or wells. 17 Since the austral summer of 2014, southeast Brazil has had one of the most severe droughts in decades. The prolonged absence of rainfall resulted in water shortages and a water crisis that affected residents and local economies in the metropolitan region of São Paulo.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Combined effects of hydrometeorological hazards and urbanisation on dengue risk in Brazil: a spatiotemporal modelling study

Lowe

Lee

O’Reilly

et al. 2021

The Lancet Planetary Health

105

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Background Temperature and rainfall patterns are known to influence seasonal patterns of dengue transmission. However, the effect of severe drought and extremely wet conditions on the timing and intensity of dengue epidemics is poorly understood. In this study, we aimed to quantify the non-linear and delayed effects of extreme hydrometeorological hazards on dengue risk by level of urbanisation in Brazil using a spatiotemporal model. MethodsWe combined distributed lag non-linear models with a spatiotemporal Bayesian hierarchical model framework to determine the exposure-lag-response association between the relative risk (RR) of dengue and a drought severity index. We fit the model to monthly dengue case data for the 558 microregions of Brazil between January, 2001, and January, 2019, accounting for unobserved confounding factors, spatial autocorrelation, seasonality, and interannual variability. We assessed the variation in RR by level of urbanisation through an interaction between the drought severity index and urbanisation. We also assessed the effect of hydrometeorological hazards on dengue risk in areas with a high frequency of water supply shortages. Findings The dataset included 12 895 293 dengue cases reported between 2001 and 2019 in Brazil. Overall, the risk of dengue increased between 0-3 months after extremely wet conditions (maximum RR at 1 month lag 1•56 [95% CI 1•41-1•73]) and 3-5 months after drought conditions (maximum RR at 4 months lag 1•43 [1•22-1•67]). Including a linear interaction between the drought severity index and level of urbanisation improved the model fit and showed the risk of dengue was higher in more rural areas than highly urbanised areas during extremely wet conditions (maximum RR 1•77 [1•32-2•37] at 0 months lag vs maximum RR 1•58 [1•39-1•81] at 2 months lag), but higher in highly urbanised areas than rural areas after extreme drought (maximum RR 1•60 [1•33-1•92] vs 1•15 [1•08-1•22], both at 4 months lag). We also found the dengue risk following extreme drought was higher in areas that had a higher frequency of water supply shortages.Interpretation Wet conditions and extreme drought can increase the risk of dengue with different delays. The risk associated with extremely wet conditions was higher in more rural areas and the risk associated with extreme drought was exacerbated in highly urbanised areas, which have water shortages and intermittent water supply during droughts. These findings have implications for targeting mosquito control activities in poorly serviced urban areas, not only during the wet and warm season, but also during drought periods.

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“…São fundamentais pesquisas inter e transdisciplinares para elaboração de modelos conceituais e de governança para riscos de desastres associados a diferentes tipos de ameaça. Em relação às secas, as ações científicas e institucionais não se restringem ao monitoramento da seca e às políticas de respostas, como o provimento de carros-pipa, mas incluem uma série de atividades em relação ao conhecimento do risco, de ações de mitigação entre diferentes organizações 35 . Em relação aos incêndios, o conhecimento sobre os riscos, as formas de monitoramento e comunicação, assim como as políticas públicas de mitigação, geram diversas oportunidades de pesquisa transdisciplinar 36 .…”

Section: Temasunclassified

Pesquisa transdisciplinar como suporte ao planejamento de ações de gestão de risco de desastres

Marchezini

2020

Saúde debate

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O envolvimento científico com o tema de desastres se tornou crescente a partir da segunda metade do século XX 1 , assim como as recomendações internacionais sobre gestão de desastres e, mais recentemente, de gestão de riscos de desastres. Dentre as principais referências da Organização das Nações Unidas (ONU) sobre o tema, destacam-se a Década Internacional para Redução de Desastres (1990), o Marco de Ação de Hyogo (MAH) (2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015) e o Marco de Sendai para Redução do Risco de Desastres (MASRRD) (2015)(2016)(2017)(2018)(2019)(2020)(2021)(2022)(2023)(2024)(2025)(2026)(2027)(2028)(2029)(2030).O MAH esteve vigente no período 2005-2015, tinha como principal objetivo o aumento da resiliência ante desastres e possuía cinco prioridades de ação: i) fomentar uma forte base institucional para assegurar que a Redução do Risco de Desastres (RRD) fosse implementada como prioridade no nível nacional e local; ii) conhecer e monitorar riscos no curto e longo prazo; iii) usar conhecimento, inovação e educação para resiliência; iv) reduzir fatores que acentuam os riscos; e v) fortalecer a preparação para a resposta a desastres. Em cada uma dessas cinco prioridades de ação, uma série de recomendações foi feita, e era clara a importância da pesquisa científica para valorizar o conhecimento tradicional e produzir novos conhecimentos, como também para gerar subsídios às ações de planejamento e implementação. Embora o MAH tenha feito importantes recomendações -como promoção de planos multisetoriais, participação comunitária, inovação, sistemas de alerta centrados nas pessoas, valorização das dimensões de gênero, etária, étnica etc. -, a menção explícita às questões de saúde foram marginais -três menções à palavra 'saúde', com destaque para um dos itens da quarta prioridade de ação, que versava sobre a necessidade de integrar o planejamento de RRD no setor saúde e promover a construção e manutenção de hospitais seguros 2 .O MASRRD, com início em 2015 e em vigor até 2030, expande a importância da participação de diversos setores e atores no tema, sobretudo do setor de saúde, referenciado 75 vezes ao longo do documento 3 . A mudança substancial do MAH para o MASRRD ocorreu na ênfase às ações de Gestão de Risco de Desastres (GRD), que incluem não só a RRD como também a prevenção para que novos riscos não sejam criados. A essa mudança de escopo, adiciona-se uma caracterização mais detalhada dos tipos de atores em RRD -uma novidade

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The challenges of Consolidation of a Drought-Related Disaster Risk Warning System to Brazil

Cited by 17 publications

References 25 publications

“What is a Sociologist Doing Here?” An Unconventional People-Centered Approach to Improve Warning Implementation in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction

“What is a Sociologist Doing Here?” An Unconventional People-Centered Approach to Improve Warning Implementation in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction

Combined effects of hydrometeorological hazards and urbanisation on dengue risk in Brazil: a spatiotemporal modelling study

Pesquisa transdisciplinar como suporte ao planejamento de ações de gestão de risco de desastres

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