The changing sensitivity of power systems to meteorological drivers: a case study of Great Britain

Bloomfield, Hannah; Brayshaw, David; Shaffrey, Len; Coker, Phil; Thornton, Hazel

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aabff9

Cited by 39 publications

(52 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…Note that in some countries the total load data may include a contribution from embedded renewable generation, which should be noted in the interpretation of results. This approach is very similar to that used in previous studies (Bloomfield et al ., , ) and validates well against observations on daily timescales with R 2 > 0.86 for all countries, and an average root mean square error (RMSE) of 7% of the national‐aggregate demand in all cases. For full details of the regression co‐efficients and corresponding skill scores, see Supporting Information File S1.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Characterizing the winter meteorological drivers of the European electricity system using targeted circulation types

Bloomfield

Brayshaw

Charlton‐Perez

2019

Meteorological Applications

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125

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Renewable electricity is a key enabling step in the decarbonization of energy. Europe is at the forefront of renewable deployment and this has dramatically increased the weather sensitivity of the continent's power systems. Despite the importance of weather to energy systems, and widespread interest from both academia and industry, the meteorological drivers of European power systems remain difficult to identify and are poorly understood. The present study presents a new and generally applicable approach, targeted circulation types (TCTs). In contrast to standard meteorological weather‐regime or circulation‐typing schemes, TCTs convolve the weather sensitivity of an impacted system of interest (in this case, the electricity system) with the intrinsic structures of the atmospheric circulation to identify its meteorological drivers. A new 38 year reconstruction of daily electricity demand and renewable supply across Europe is used to identify the winter large‐scale circulation patterns of most interest to the European electricity grid. TCTs provide greater explanatory power for power system variability and extremes compared with standard meteorological typing. Two new pairs of atmospheric patterns are highlighted, both of which have marked and extensive impacts on the European power system. The first pair resembles the meridional surface pressure dipole of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), but shifted eastward into Europe and noticeably strengthened, while the second pair is weaker and corresponds to surface pressure anomalies over Central Southern and Eastern Europe. While these gross qualitative patterns are robust features of the present European power systems, the detailed circulation structures are strongly affected by the amount and location of renewables installed.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Characterizing the winter meteorological drivers of the European electricity system using targeted circulation types

Bloomfield

Brayshaw

Charlton‐Perez

2019

Meteorological Applications

Self Cite

125

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show abstract

“…To guarantee a continuous and secure energy supply in a future highly-renewable power system, critical situations require special attention. In Europe, largescale high pressure systems can lead to the unfortunate combination of low wind and solar power production and high energy demand, resulting in extreme high energy shortfall (Bloomfield et al 2018, Van der Wiel et al 2019a. The flexibility requirements of a power system are, in part, determined by such events (Huber et al 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The influence of weather regimes on European renewable energy production and demand

Wiel

Bloomfield

Lee

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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116

109

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The growing share of variable renewable energy increases the meteorological sensitivity of power systems. This study investigates if large-scale weather regimes capture the influence of meteorological variability on the European energy sector. For each weather regime, the associated changes to wintertime-mean and extreme-wind and solar power production, temperature-driven energy demand and energy shortfall (residual load) are explored. Days with a blocked circulation pattern, i.e. the 'Scandinavian Blocking' and 'North Atlantic Oscillation negative' regimes, on average have lower than normal renewable power production, higher than normal energy demand and therefore, higher than normal energy shortfall. These average effects hide large variability of energy parameters within each weather regime. Though the risk of extreme high energy shortfall events increases in the two blocked regimes (by a factor of 1.5 and 2.0, respectively), it is shown that such events occur in all regimes. Extreme high energy shortfall events are the result of rare circulation types and smaller-scale features, rather than extreme magnitudes of common large-scale circulation types. In fact, these events resemble each other more strongly than their respective weather regime mean pattern. For (sub-) seasonal forecasting applications weather regimes may be of use for the energy sector. At shorter lead times or for more detailed system analyses, their ineffectiveness at characterising extreme events limits their potential.

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“…The dominant patterns that drive winds across Mexico have not previously been explored, whereas these are commonly used in meteorological forecasting in other regions of the (e.g., Bloomfield et al, 2018;Wang et al, 2020). The literature relating to the drivers of weather in the region was summarized by Maldonado et al (2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drivers of extreme wind events in Mexico for windpower applications

Thomas

Martínez‐Alvarado

Drew

et al. 2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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In this study, we use a k-mean clustering approach to investigate the weather patterns responsible for extreme wind speed events throughout Mexico using 40 years of the ERA-5 atmospheric reanalysis. Generally, we find a large geographical split between the weather patterns that generate the strongest winds across the country. The highest wind power production periods therefore occur at different times in different regions across the country. In the South, these are associated with cold surge events, where an anticyclone is present in the Gulf of Mexico resulting in a strong Northerly flow across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. In the NorthEast , Easterly trade winds are responsible for the strongest wind events, whereas in the NorthWest , it is the proximity of the North Pacific High. However, the weakest winds and lowest power production periods occur at the same times for all stations with the exception of Baja California Sur, meaning that low wind power production may be unavoidable at these times. The El Niño Southern Oscillation is found to influence wind speeds at some locations across Mexico at sub-seasonal timescales. We report that statistically stronger wind speeds are observed during the Summer during El Niño months than during La Niña months for both sites in Chiapas and Oaxaca.

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The changing sensitivity of power systems to meteorological drivers: a case study of Great Britain

Cited by 39 publications

References 22 publications

Characterizing the winter meteorological drivers of the European electricity system using targeted circulation types

Characterizing the winter meteorological drivers of the European electricity system using targeted circulation types

The influence of weather regimes on European renewable energy production and demand

Drivers of extreme wind events in Mexico for windpower applications

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