The Chicken and Egg Question: Satisfaction with Democracy and Voter Turnout

Abstract

Political scientists, analysts and journalists alike have long believed that the degree of satisfaction with the functioning of democracy determines voter turnout. We use survey data from 24 panel studies to demonstrate that this causal relationship is actually reversed: voter turnout affects satisfaction with democracy. We also show that this reversed relationship is conditioned by election type, electoral system, and election outcomes. These findings are important because: (1) They question conventional wisdom and a large body of scientific literature; (2) They invite a more nuanced approach towards the study of the relationship between evaluations of regime performance and political participation; and (3) They emphasize the vital role of elections in shaping citizens’ perception of the democratic process.

Do European elections enhance satisfaction with European Union democracy?

“…In other words, for every 10 percentage point increase in the vote share of a supported party, satisfaction with democracy is expected to increase by 0.07 point on a scale from -10 to þ10 (see Figure 3(c)). The effect is somewhat smaller compared to what for example Kostelka and Blais (2018) found in the case of national elections, where the equivalent increase is 0.15 point. When we consider the performance of the European party group, we find that satisfaction is .039 point higher after an election when one's party's vote share increases by 1 percentage point (see Figure 3 (d)).…”

Monumental Decisions: How Direct Democracy Shapes Attitudes in the Conflict over Confederate Memorials

“…States that allow for ballot initiatives and referenda tend to have an increase in multiple types of participation (Damore and Nicholson 2014; Dyck and Seabrook 2010; Tolbert, McNeal, and Smith 2003). Direct legislation appears to increase a sense of government responsiveness in people (Bowler and Donovan 2002), whereas electoral participation increases perceptions of democratic processes (Kostelka and Blais 2018).…”

What makes people believe that their party won the election?

“…Kostelka and Blais (2018) provide more insight in the casual direction of this effect. Using panel data, they demonstrate that turning out increases voters' level of satisfaction and not the reverse (i.e.…”