The Connection between Extreme Precipitation Variability over Monsoon Asia and Large-Scale Circulation Patterns

Sunilkumar, K.; Kumar, Vinay; Pradhan, P. K.

doi:10.3390/atmos12111492

Cited by 13 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…Extreme precipitation has also shown an increasing trend with significant spatial heterogeneity [15,[29][30][31]. Many scholars attribute this climate change to the internal variability of the climate system, such as the Southern Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Asian subtropical jet [32][33][34].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of CMIP6 Models and Multi-Model Ensemble for Extreme Precipitation over Arid Central Asia

Lei

Liu

et al. 2023

Remote Sensing

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Simulated historical extreme precipitation is evaluated for Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models using precipitation indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The indices of 33 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) are evaluated against corresponding indices with observations from the Global Climate Center Precipitation Dataset (GPCC V2020) over five sub-regions across Arid Central Asia (ACA), using the Taylor diagram, interannual variability skill score (IVS) and comprehensive rating index (MR). Moreover, we compare four multi-model ensemble approaches: arithmetic average multi-model ensemble (AMME), median multi-model ensemble (MME), pattern performance-based multi-model ensemble (MM-PERF) and independence weighted mean (IWM). The results show that CMIP6 models have a certain ability to simulate the spatial distribution of extreme precipitation in ACA and the best ability to simulate simple daily intensity (SDII), but it is difficult to capture the spatial bias of consecutive wet days (CWD). Almost all models represent different degrees of wet bias in the southern Xinjiang (SX). Most GCMs are generally able to capture extreme precipitation trends, but to reproduce the performance of interannual variability for heavy precipitation days (R10mm), SDII and CWD need to be improved. The four multi-model ensemble methods can reduce the internal system bias and variability within individual models and outperform individual models in capturing the spatial and temporal variability of extreme precipitation. However, significant uncertainties remain in the simulation of extreme precipitation indices in SX and Tianshan Mountain (TM). Comparatively, IWM simulations of extreme precipitation in the ACA and its sub-regions are more reliable. The results of this study can provide a reference for the application of GCMs in ACA and sub-regions and can also reduce the uncertainty and increase the reliability of future climate change projections through the optimal multi-model ensemble method.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of CMIP6 Models and Multi-Model Ensemble for Extreme Precipitation over Arid Central Asia

Lei

Liu

et al. 2023

Remote Sensing

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“…However, Du et al (2022) documented that extreme precipitation over consecutive days may increase due to warmer climates. Sunilkumar et al (2021) reported that extreme rainfall events have increased in various regions, including monsoon Asia, in recent decades. During the OND season, tropical cyclones over the BoB play a very crucial role in the daily rainfall activities over the PI.…”

Section: Environmental Conditions For Cyclogenesis Over the Bay Of Be...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional and remote influences of ocean‐atmospheric processes on northeast monsoon rainfall during 2021 over India

Vijaya Bhaskara Rao,

Pradhan,

Raman

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Severe rainfall during the recent northeast monsoon season (October, November and December) in 2021 caused unexpected disasters (triggered flooding and landslides) in the pilgrim city of Tirupati and the metropolitan city of Chennai over the peninsular of India (PI). The remote and regional influence of several ocean‐atmospheric climate indices on northeast monsoon rainfall (NEMR) during the OND season is investigated to understand the contributory mechanisms of extreme rainfall events over the PI during 2021. The interannual variability of NEMR and its relationship with the OND sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly over the Niño3.4 and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) regions are considered. In addition, SST anomalies over the Bay of Bengal (BoB), such as east BoB (EBoB), east equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO) and their gradients (GSST) connections with NEMR, are also examined. The impact of Siberian High (SH), Western Pacific High (WPH), Arabian Sea Surface Pressure (ASSP), easterly waves (EW) and land surface temperature contrast (LSTC) is also analysed and incorporated to find a specific linkage with NEM 2021. The results show that excess NEMR during OND 2021 is suggestively associated with favourable large‐scale conditions like negative IOD and the La Niña phase over the Indo‐Pacific region. In November 2021, two deep depressions made landfall over Tamil Nadu (within the latitude of 11°–13°N) and over adjoining areas, which caused copious amounts of rainfall (maximum ~90 mm·day−1), leading to flooding conditions over Tirupati and Chennai. During the NEM season, abundant warming of BoB and weak vertical wind shear, along with negative anomalies of ASSP, modulated the cyclonic activities that enhanced the sufficient moisture transports from BoB to the PI. The MSLP anomalies over the ASSP region depict a significant correlation (−0.47) with the interannual variability of NEM as compared to SH and WPH during the OND season of 2021.

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“…The position of WPSH is not prone to jump north but to maintain a southerly position, which is conducive to transporting the water vapor from the Pacific Ocean and the South China Sea to the MLYR continuously. The cold air from the high latitudes southwards converges with the warm and humid air in the MLYR, which is conducive to the formation of continuous heavy rainstorms (Khadgarai et al, 2021;Xia et al, 2022). produce large scale precipitation during its activity [54,55].…”

Section: Response Of Extreme Precipitation Indices To Atmospheric Cir...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial-temporal variations of extreme precipitation indices and their linkage with atmospheric circulation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River

Yang

Huang

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Under the background of climate change, increasing frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation causes serious impacts and huge losses to society and economy. It is significant to analyze the spatial and temporal variation of extreme precipitation for regional risk assessment. Nine extreme precipitation indices were calculated using the daily precipitation data of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLYR) from 1979 to 2015. Linear trend analysis and the Mann-Kendall trend test were carried out to determine the variation trend of the nine extreme precipitation indices. In addition, the potential influences of anomalous atmospheric circulation factors on extreme precipitation were explored using the wavelet coherence analysis technique. The results show that: (1) the overall wetting trend is detected in the MLYR, and the PRCPTOT and RX1day increased significantly; (2) Extreme precipitation decreased from southeast to northwest in the MLYR, indicating that extreme precipitation events are more prone to occur in the southeast of the MLYR; (3) the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), the South China Sea high (SCSH) and the East Asian westerly jet (EAJ) all strongly impact on the changes of precipitation in the MLYR, among which the WPSH has the most significant impact, followed by the SCSH, and the EAJ is weaker.

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The Connection between Extreme Precipitation Variability over Monsoon Asia and Large-Scale Circulation Patterns

Cited by 13 publications

References 58 publications

Evaluation of CMIP6 Models and Multi-Model Ensemble for Extreme Precipitation over Arid Central Asia

Evaluation of CMIP6 Models and Multi-Model Ensemble for Extreme Precipitation over Arid Central Asia

Regional and remote influences of ocean‐atmospheric processes on northeast monsoon rainfall during 2021 over India

Spatial-temporal variations of extreme precipitation indices and their linkage with atmospheric circulation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River

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