The consequences of the international financial crisis and the great recession in Argentina and Brazil

Haines, Andrés Ferrari; Filho, Fernando Ferrari; Neyra, Hernan

doi:10.1590/0101-31572020-3048

Cited by 6 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…The rise and fall of the RCA index are not only caused by the export value of commodities in the country concerned but also influenced by the value of world natural rubber exports and also the export value of world products (natural rubber and others) both in exporting and partner countries etc. Based on Figure 3, the RCA Index in Brazil experienced the largest decline in 2007 when a global economic crisis caused Brazil to experience a recession (Haines et al, 2020). On the other hand, the RCA Index in the Republic of Korea experienced the largest increase and was at a peak point in 2015 due to the rise in the share of world natural rubber exports to world exports.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Competitiveness and determinants of Indonesia's natural rubber exports in main partner countries

Tiyastuti¹,

Marwanti²,

Fajarningsih³

2022

Scientific Horizons

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The main destination countries play an important role in Indonesia's natural rubber exports, as most of Indonesia's natural rubber is exported to these countries. The purpose of this study was to examine the comparative advantage and determinants of Indonesia's natural rubber exports to major partner countries. The RCA (Revealed Comparative Advantage) index is used to assess the comparative advantage, and panel data regression analysis is used to analyze the determinants of exports to the main partner countries (USA, China, Japan, India, Republic of Korea, Brazil, Canada, Germany, Belgium and Turkey). The results of this study indicate that Indonesian natural rubber has a comparative advantage in the main partner countries, which are characterized by RCA index >1. In addition, it was determined that based on panel data regression, the increase in the world price of natural rubber and export restriction policies have led to a decline in natural rubber exports from Indonesia. It is found that the population of Indonesia reduces exports, while the population of partner countries increases exports due to population growth, which will increase the consumption of natural rubber. On the other hand, the increase in Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) will lead to an increase in natural rubber production capacity, which will contribute to an increase in exports. It is found that the previous year's demand was also taken into account by partner countries that import Indonesian natural rubber. The results of this study can be useful for the Indonesian government and stakeholders (such as natural rubber producers and exporters) to identify strategies to improve export performance

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Competitiveness and determinants of Indonesia's natural rubber exports in main partner countries

Tiyastuti¹,

Marwanti²,

Fajarningsih³

2022

Scientific Horizons

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“…e output of the neuron is represented by the function f, and the S function is most commonly used to realize the non-linear characteristics of the network [14].…”

Section: Scientific Programmingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Financial Crisis Prediction Model of Listed Companies Based on Statistics and AI

Wang

2022

Scientific Programming

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In the fierce market competition, companies are constantly facing the threat of falling into GFC. A global financial crisis refers to a crisis in global financial assets or financial institutions or financial markets. However, the threat of a global financial crisis (GFC) is not helpless, but can be predicted in advance. Therefore, building a GFC prediction model is of great significance to the development of the company. This article mainly studies the GFC prediction model of listed companies based on statistics and AI methods. This paper chooses to determine the number of training samples and test samples as 40 and 16 respectively, that is, 8 companies are randomly selected as test samples from financial health companies and GFC companies respectively, and the remaining 40 become training samples. According to the primary selection of characteristic indicators, this paper adopts the frequency statistics method, that is, the higher frequency is selected through the previous research, and the indicator selection is made on this basis. This article will use the Kolmogorov–Smimov (K-S test) goodness-of-fit test method. Each of the early warning indicators selected in this article should be able to distinguish between GFC and non-GFC companies, so the selection should be made by indicators one by one. Bring the indicators of each year into the factor function formula obtained by factor analysis, and get a new variable group. Then SPSS16.0 was used for binomial logistic regression analysis for each year. This article uses KMO and Bartlett identification. The assumption of the sphericity test of the Bartlett test is that the correlation coefficient matrix is an identity matrix, and statistics are obtained according to the matrix formula of the correlation coefficient matrix. The prediction accuracy of the nonlinear combination discriminant method has been improved in the first three years of the GFC, and in the year (t − 3), which is a little far away from the crisis time, the accuracy rate has reached 83%. The results show that the combination of statistics and AI has a significant effect on improving the prediction accuracy of the GFC prediction model of listed companies.

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The real exchange rate and industrial investment: new evidence for Brazil

Iasco-Pereira,

Libânio,

Missio

2024

Cambridge Journal of Economics

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This study empirically investigates the influence exerted by the real exchange rate (RER) on investments in 81 sectors of Brazil’s manufacturing industry, between 2007 and 2018. The work has a number of novel features. First, a more disaggregated database is employed than that commonly found in the existing literature. Second, the article’s empirical findings indicate the existence of two competing channels through which a competitive RER may influence sectoral investments, that is: (i) positively, by enhanced exports and (ii) negatively, via more expensive imported inputs. Third, our empirical results also indicate that the RER’s influence is more significant in sectors with a lower mark-up, which means that a competitive RER—caused by expanding revenues from exports, offsets a lack of internal funds to finance new investments. Fourth, we tested the existence of an import penetration channel. The results reveal that a competitive RER increases investments as consumers substitute imported goods with domestic ones.

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The consequences of the international financial crisis and the great recession in Argentina and Brazil

Cited by 6 publications

References 4 publications

Competitiveness and determinants of Indonesia's natural rubber exports in main partner countries

Competitiveness and determinants of Indonesia's natural rubber exports in main partner countries

Financial Crisis Prediction Model of Listed Companies Based on Statistics and AI

The real exchange rate and industrial investment: new evidence for Brazil

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