2022
DOI: 10.3390/fire5040117
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The Construction of Probabilistic Wildfire Risk Estimates for Individual Real Estate Parcels for the Contiguous United States

Abstract: The methodology used by the First Street Foundation Wildfire Model (FSF-WFM) to compute estimates of the 30-year, climate-adjusted aggregate wildfire hazard for the contiguous United States at 30 m horizontal resolution is presented. The FSF-WFM integrates several existing methods from the wildfire science community and implements computationally efficient and scalable modeling techniques to allow for new high-resolution, CONUS-wide hazard generation. Burn probability, flame length, and ember spread for the ye… Show more

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Cited by 14 publications
(30 citation statements)
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“…As a result, climate chemistry model output of wildfire PM2.5 can differ significantly from ground observations. Therefore in our modeling approach, with a focus on proper attribution of wildfire PM2.5, the daily gridded wildfire smoke PM2.5 concentration dataset from Childs et al (2022) is used in combination with simulated ELMFIRE fire emissions (Kearns et al, 2022;Melecio-Vázquez et al, 2023) to characterize current and future impacts to air quality conditions for CONUS due to PM2.5. The Childs et al (2022) data, hereafter "Childs data", which are 10.3389/feart.2024.1320170 openly available via Github, were produced using a machine learning (ML) model that combines ground, satellite, and reanalysis data sources to arrive at PM2.5 concentration estimates.…”
Section: Wildfire Smoke Pm25mentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…As a result, climate chemistry model output of wildfire PM2.5 can differ significantly from ground observations. Therefore in our modeling approach, with a focus on proper attribution of wildfire PM2.5, the daily gridded wildfire smoke PM2.5 concentration dataset from Childs et al (2022) is used in combination with simulated ELMFIRE fire emissions (Kearns et al, 2022;Melecio-Vázquez et al, 2023) to characterize current and future impacts to air quality conditions for CONUS due to PM2.5. The Childs et al (2022) data, hereafter "Childs data", which are 10.3389/feart.2024.1320170 openly available via Github, were produced using a machine learning (ML) model that combines ground, satellite, and reanalysis data sources to arrive at PM2.5 concentration estimates.…”
Section: Wildfire Smoke Pm25mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Conversely, increased wildfire activity-which currently represents approximately 15%-30% of PM2.5 concentrations in the United States-is likely to significantly impact PM2.5 production into the future (Jacob and Winner, 2009;Spracklen et al, 2009;Liu et al, 2021) and put at risk any improvements gained from controls on anthropogenic emissions. The importance of this point is underscored given the fact that wildfire is the fastestgrowing natural disaster associated with climate change and is expected to continue to increase over the next 30 years (Kearns et al, 2022). While not a direct correlation, fire emission increases of 50% more by mid-century are projected for CONUS in multiple studies (Spracklen et al, 2009;Val Martin et al, 2015;Ford et al, 2018).…”
mentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…Recent publications on SLR focus on coastal infrastructure vulnerability, such as risk to airports (Yesudian & Dawson, 2021), port operations (Christodoulou et al, 2019), and nuclear power plants (Kopytko & Perkins, 2011). The First Street Foundation has recently been publishing studies focusing on climate change and increased flood risk, wildfire risk, and the correlated flood/fire risk facing American communities and associated economic damages (Armal et al, 2020; Kearns et al, 2022; Porter et al, 2021).…”
Section: Prior Workmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Housing-vulnerable household-days of heavy smoke were largest in California, Illinois, Washington, and New York. Wildfires and wildfire smoke present difficult recovery trajectories for housingvulnerable communities because of the enormous destruction of housing supply, which increases housing costs and exacerbates the nation's housing affordability crisis, especially in the high-demand regions of the West (Kearns 2022;Ibarraran and Ruth 2009). Nearly 72 million properties face some risk of wildfires over the next 30 years, representing an immense challenge to future housing security (First Street Foundation 2022).…”
Section: Housing Vulnerability and Resiliencementioning
confidence: 99%