The Credit Risk Contagion Mechanism of Financial Guarantee Network: An Application of the SEIR‐Epidemic Model

Abstract

Financing guarantee is an important means and key link to solve the financing difficulties of small- and medium-size enterprises (SMEs). However, while financial guarantees alleviate the financing difficulties of SMEs, the complex guarantee relationships also constitute a new channel for credit risk contagion in the financial guarantee network. In this paper, we construct a model of credit risk contagion process of guarantee network based on SEIR and analyse the equilibrium point and stability of the model. Then, we find the threshold value of risk contagion and further simulate the SEIR model dynamically to analyse the influence of each parameter of the model. The results show that the risk of the financing guarantee network begins to be widely contagious only when risk contagion threshold is greater than 1, and the conversion rate of exposed enterprises, removal rate of infected enterprises, nodal enterprises degree, and risk contagion rate have significant effects on the changes of individual density of susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered enterprises. Combining the above findings, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to propose relevant countermeasures for credit risk control of financial guarantee network.