The death spiral of coal in the U.S.: will changes in U.S. Policy turn the tide?

Mendelevitch, Roman; Hauenstein, Christian; Holz, Franziska

doi:10.1080/14693062.2019.1641462

Cited by 34 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…North America ( Figure 5) has recently fostered its fossil fuel dependency, and it relies increasingly on domestic shale oil and gas (see, e.g., Ansari, 2019;Ansari and Kaufmann, 2019). Oil imports and domestic coal are therefore losing importance (Mendelevitch et al, 2019).…”

Section: Asia-pacificmentioning

confidence: 99%

Energy Outlooks Compared: Global and Regional Insights

Ansari¹,

Holz²,

al-Kuhlani³

2020

EEEP

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We compare prominent global energy scenarios of organisations and companies. We supplement the analysis with four own scenarios, which were derived from structured analytic techniques in combination with a numerical global energy and resource market model (Multimod). Our study provides three central contributions: (i) a compact survey of selected outlooks with meta characteristics (conceptual nature, numerical framework, qualitative elaboration) and quantitative energy system indicators at the global and regional (Europe, Asia-Pacific region, North America) level; (ii) numerous observations from a verbal analysis intended to stimulate future research; and (iii) the discussion of our own outlook. Among other conclusions, we find that scenarios essentially carrying forward current policies and/or trends lead to future worlds that do not meet the 2°C target of the Paris Agreement. Interestingly, there are both normative and exploratory scenarios reaching the Paris Agreement, and there is no consensus between outlooks on how to attain low-emission futures towards 2050. Some scenarios rely on a very strong role of renewables, others on a substantial role of negative emission technologies with fossil fuel use, yet others on assuming decreasing energy demand. There is a strong variation between outlooks with respect to transparency on scenario generation, modelling approach, and data. We argue that, in addition to transparency, the actual inclusion of a qualitative analysis of drivers and storylines helps ensure the political, social and technological feasibility of scenarios.

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Section: Asia-pacificmentioning

confidence: 99%

Energy Outlooks Compared: Global and Regional Insights

Ansari¹,

Holz²,

al-Kuhlani³

2020

EEEP

Self Cite

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“…Gt CO2); Shell, Equinor, and BP numbers have been adjusted to match the regional disaggregation "Asia-Pacific" as defined by the IEA Gt CO2); BP numbers are adjusted to match the regional disaggregation "North America" North America ( Figure 5) has recently fostered its fossil fuel dependency, and it relies increasingly on domestic shale oil and gas (see, e.g., Ansari, 2019;Ansari and Kaufmann, 2019). Oil imports and domestic coal are therefore losing importance (Mendelevitch et al, 2019).…”

Section: Asia-pacificmentioning

confidence: 99%

Energy Outlooks Compared: Global and Regional Insights

2019

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We compare prominent global energy scenarios of organisations and companies. We supplement the analysis with four own scenarios, which were derived from structured analytic techniques in combination with a numerical global energy and resource market model (Multimod).Our study provides three central contributions: (i) a compact survey of selected outlooks with meta characteristics (conceptual nature, numerical framework, qualitative elaboration) and quantitative energy system indicators at the global and regional (Europe, Asia-Pacific region, North America) level; (ii) numerous observations from a verbal analysis intended to stimulate future research; and (iii) the discussion of our own outlook.Among other conclusions, we find that scenarios essentially carrying forward current policies and/or trends lead to future worlds that do not meet the 2°C target of the Paris Agreement. Interestingly, there are both normative and exploratory scenarios reaching the Paris Agreement, and there is no consensus between outlooks on how to attain low-emission futures towards 2050. Some scenarios rely on a very strong role of renewables, others on a substantial role of negative emission technologies with fossil fuel use, yet others on assuming decreasing energy demand. There is a strong variation between outlooks with respect to transparency on scenario generation, modelling approach, and data. We argue that, in addition to transparency, the actual inclusion of a qualitative analysis of drivers and storylines helps ensure the political, social and technological feasibility of scenarios.

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“…In many countries around the world, governments and utility companies have started to engage in coalphase out processes (Jewell et al 2019;Rentier, Lelieveldt, and Kramer 2019). Others hold out hope for more prosperous times in the coal sector (Mendelevitch, Hauenstein, and Holz 2019). This paper explores the future of the coal sector in the United States (U.S.).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, economic drivers have led to the continuous decline of U.S. coal mining and power generation. Mendelevitch, Hauenstein, and Holz (2019), Feaster (2018), Houser, Bordoff, and Marsters (2017), Wang, Li, and Li (2019) and others have documented and analyzed the downward trend of U.S. coal production and consumption in the U.S. electricity sector. They essentially come to four main reasons for this decline: 1) the shale gas boom; 2) an increasing amount of renewable electricity generation; 3) the tightened environmental regulations of the power sector (but with less effect than the previous two reasons); and 4) the very old fleet of coal-fired power plants.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…6 When prospecting the future of the U.S. coal sector, it is a natural question whether this trend in favor of PRB coal will continue and whether there are scenarios -notably those with higher or lower exports -in which this trend is reinforced or attenuated. Due to their geographic location, the coal regions are differently connected to export ports and PRB coal, in particular, can hardly access export markets because of the de facto moratorium on West coast export terminals (Mendelevitch, Hauenstein, and Holz 2019).…”

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confidence: 99%

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The U.S. Coal Sector between Shale Gas and Renewables: Last Resort Coal Exports?

Hauenstein

Holz

2020

SSRN Journal

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Coal consumption and production have sharply declined in recent years in the U.S., despite political support. Reasons are mostly unfavorable economic conditions for coal, including competition from natural gas and renewables in the power sector, as well as an aging coalfired power plant fleet. The U.S. Energy Information Administration as well as most models of North American energy markets depict continuously high shares of coal-fired power generation over the next decades in their current policies scenarios. We contrast their results with coal sector modelling based on bottom-up data and recent market trends. We project considerably lower near-term coal use for power generation in the U.S. This has significant effects on coal production and mining employment. Allowing new export terminals along the U.S. West Coast could ease cuts in U.S. production. Yet, exports are a highly uncertain strategy because the U.S. could be strongly affected by changes in global demand, for example from non-U.S. climate policy. Furthermore, coal production within the U.S. is likely to experience regional shifts, affecting location and number of mining jobs.

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The death spiral of coal in the U.S.: will changes in U.S. Policy turn the tide?

Cited by 34 publications

References 20 publications

Energy Outlooks Compared: Global and Regional Insights

Energy Outlooks Compared: Global and Regional Insights

Energy Outlooks Compared: Global and Regional Insights

The U.S. Coal Sector between Shale Gas and Renewables: Last Resort Coal Exports?

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