The first arrival dates for summer migrants in Cheshire and Wirral indicate a longer term trend towards earlier arrival since the mid 1970s, consistent with the findings of previous studies based on first arrival data from UK area bird reports. The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of abundance and population change on the apparent advancement of arrival dates. Stronger apparent advancement in arrival was observed for species which have increased in numbers in the county over recent years, for example Hobby Falco subbuteo. Less common and declining species, such as Turtle Dove Streptopelia turtur, Yellow Wagtail Motacilla flava, Wood Warbler Phylloscopus sibilatrix, Willow Warbler P. trochilus and Spotted Flycatcher Muscicapa striata, showed some of the lowest rates of advancement. These observations can be interpreted in terms of the dependence of the first arrival date on the probability of detection of individuals, which is dependent on the level of abundance of a species as a whole, and hence on changes in abundance. Theoretical considerations indicate that changes in abundance are likely to have more of an impact on the apparent advancement rate of arrival for less abundant species than for more abundant ones. Such factors may in part explain the regional differences that have been observed in apparent advancement rates for some species.There have been numerous studies in recent years of longer term trends in the timing of migrant arrival, based on first arrival dates, which have indicated advancement, apparently indicative of a response to global warming (eg Mason 1995, Lehikoinen et al 2004. A large volume of data for first arrival dates has been recorded, covering an extended period, and this existing data set would appear to provide a useful basis for evaluation of longer term trends in arrival dates. However, these data are often not readily accessible, given the formats in which they have been recorded.Potential limitations have been identified in the reliability of this data set. Sparks et al (2001) considered the influence that population size may have on the first observation of a species in spring. Tryjanowski et al (2005) recognised the effect of change in population size, noting that an increase would increase the chance of early detection such that first arrival would be recorded earlier, even in the absence of any change in the behaviour of the population towards earlier arrival. Conversely, a decline in a population would lead to delayed detection, masking any real advancement in arrival date. Sparks et al (2007) presented data on the long term trends in first arrival date from six bird reports from within the United Kingdom (UK). This analysis demonstrated trends in first arrival dates at the different sites that in some respects were generally similar. In particular, lower rates of advancements of arrival were generally evident for some declining long distance migrant species. Some significant differences in trends between the sites were found in some instances. These autho...