The Demand for English Premier League Soccer Betting

Deutscher, Christian; Ötting, Marius; Scholten, Hendrik

doi:10.1177/1527002518794803

Cited by 13 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Whatever the case, the economic value of players and teams has proven to be a determining factor for the attractiveness of professional football [36,37], as well as for sports performance [38]. While the internal financial balance of European leagues has increased [39], the competitive balance has diminished [38], and the differences in mean value among leagues have increased.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Money Talks: Team Variables and Player Positions that Most Influence the Market Value of Professional Male Footballers in Europe

et al. 2020

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The aim of this paper is to analyse different interactions of the variables (age, position, or quality of the team and the league) and the crowdsourcing Transfermarkt values of male players in the top European leagues. All players (n = 2259) in the five most highly valued European leagues—Spain, England, Italy, France, and Germany—from the 2017/2018 season were included in this study. Data were retrieved from the open-source football database (Transfermarkt). The present economic value (VPRESENT) and maximum economic value (VMAX) of all players with professional contracts were registered. Regression analysis evidenced a significant influence of the level of the team, the birth month, the league, the playing position and the age of the player on mean and maximum economic value (p < 0.05). This analysis confirms that the players participating in the UEFA Champions League, Premier League teams, playing as attacking midfielders, and born in the first quarter of the year are the most economically valued in terms of both current value (R2 of 0.33) and maximal value (R2 of 0.36). Therefore, international football entities must take into account the financial balance between competitions—and not only at the domestic level, as the attractiveness and balance of European competitions may be directly affected.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Money Talks: Team Variables and Player Positions that Most Influence the Market Value of Professional Male Footballers in Europe

et al. 2020

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“…Since market values do not vary substantially over a season, these values are held constant within and across matches. The kick-off time of the match, especially the day of the week on which the match is played, is included since previous studies investigating pre-game betting suggest that stakes vary across days of the week (see Humphreys et al, 2013 andDeutscher et al, 2019). In our analysis, we thus consider dummy variables for the different kick-off times.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

The reaction to news in live betting

Ötting¹,

Rouven²,

Langrock³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Sports betting markets have grown very rapidly recently, with the total European gambling market worth 98.6 billion euro in 2019. Considering a highresolution (1 Hz) data set provided by a large European bookmaker, we investigate the effect of news on the dynamics of live betting. In particular, we consider stakes placed in a live betting market during football matches. Accounting for the general market activity level within a state-space modelling framework, we focus on the market's response to events such as goals (i.e. major news), but also to the general situation within a match such as the uncertainty about the outcome.Our results indicate that markets tend to overreact to recent news, confirming cognitive biases known from psychology and behavioural economics.

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“…The viewing of television sports events in the United States is estimated to be 77 billion hours per year (Szymanski, 2003). The sport drives significant contribution to the economy from the global television revenues (Roberts et al, 2016), tourism income from extensive travels (Allmers & Maennig, 2009) and sponsorship from betting operators (Deutscher et al, 2019). Thank to the rapid development of broadcasting and big data technology, considerable amount of information from different sources allows forecasting the sport outcomes more accessible.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting number of corner kicks taken in association football using overdispersed distribution

Yip¹,

Zou²,

Hung³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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This paper presents a novel compound Poisson regression model to forecast number of corner kicks taken in association football. Corner kick taken events are often decisive in the match outcome and embody serial correlation and clustered pattern. Providing parameter estimates with intuitive interpretation, a class of compound Poisson distribution including a Bayesian implementation of geometric-Poisson distribution is introduced. Apart from introducing a new statistical framework, the utilisation of cross-market data, target encoding techniques and treatment to the data-rich-data-poor problem to enhance the model predictability are also discussed.

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The Demand for English Premier League Soccer Betting

Cited by 13 publications

References 27 publications

Money Talks: Team Variables and Player Positions that Most Influence the Market Value of Professional Male Footballers in Europe

Money Talks: Team Variables and Player Positions that Most Influence the Market Value of Professional Male Footballers in Europe

The reaction to news in live betting

Forecasting number of corner kicks taken in association football using overdispersed distribution

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