The Demographic and Economic Determinants of Financial Sustainability: An Analysis of Italian Local Governments

Santis, Serena

doi:10.3390/su12187599

Cited by 13 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…However, predictive methods are required for black swan events such as the COVID-19 pandemic. [37][38][39] The evolution of smart cities could be considered in the context of the discussion of the developed algorithm compared to existing research. The authors are attempting to investigate the complex task of the sustainable development in post-pandemic situation.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Smart city perspectives in post-pandemic governance: Externalities reduction policy

et al. 2022

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Background: The ongoing COVID-19 quarantine restrictions have caused multiple sharp decreases in activities associated with the movement of large masses of people. The economies of regions and cities that are critically dependent on tourist flows related to various segments have suffered. This research aims to provide an economic-mathematical model of smart cities externalities’ impact from the point of view of achieving social and environmental goals Methods: The objective of this study was to develop an algorithm for supporting decision-makers. Methods of mathematical modeling, statistical processing of data received in real-time, as well as methods for finding solutions by expansion into dynamic series are used, and the theory of mathematical games is applied. The theoretical mathematical model presented considers the statistical processing of data provided in real time referring to the performance indicators of megacities. Results: The activities of administrations and governments aimed at maintaining stability over the past two years have been aimed at reducing the negative impact of the pandemic. The prospect of returning to normal conditions is complicated by a number of factors. The proposed approach allows the development of the fundamental basis for making administrative decisions within individual megapolises and in environmental policy on a territory of any scale. The developed mathematical model is abstract by definition and is applied by taking into account specific tasks and criteria. Since the tasks of the administration differ depending on the region and country, the choice of criteria is set individually. Conclusions: During the period of isolation, the volume of services in the Hotel - Restaurant- Catering/Café (HORECA) segment has decreased, and personnel has also been lost. The reduced pressure on public infrastructure and the departure of migrants means that, in the long term, this work cannot be restored within a short period of time.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Smart city perspectives in post-pandemic governance: Externalities reduction policy

et al. 2022

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“…Due to these properties the SOM method is most often proposed in the management of complex financial systems [9] self-organizing maps are used in their work to display the state of financial stability and visualize the sources of systemic risks as well as to predict systemic financial crises. The effectiveness of this technique for the study of complex financial systems has been proven in many scientific papers when assessing financial condition and financial stability [17,24,27].…”

Section: Methodology and Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Financial Sustainability of Local Budgets in the Budget Management System Using Kohonen Maps

Lysiak¹,

Качула²,

Kushnir³

et al. 2021

ujaf

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Systematic assessment of the financial stability of local budgets is important for timely detection of budget imbalances and identification of their causes, thus helping to make informed management decisions of current and strategic nature on the development of territories, quality local public services and improving welfare. The article proposes the use of Kohonen maps to determine the financial stability of local budgets. The main advantages of the practical use of Kohonen maps for this purpose compared to such common assessment methods as integrated and matrix are the simplification of the process of assessing the financial stability of local budgets and at the same time visualization of the results for public presentation. On Ukraine's example local budgets were grouped according to the parameters of their financial stability with the construction of Kohonen maps based on the SOM-Ward algorithm. It allowed determining the financial condition of local budgets of Ukraine during 2017-2020 and accordingly the type of their financial stability. Taking into account changes in the financial stability of local budgets over time is important when adjusting fiscal policy. The idea is that simplifying the process of assessing the financial stability of local budgets is an important condition for its active practical application and at the same time will allow visualizing information for the public about local budgets which will promote transparency in budget management and increase trust in the formation of priorities of fiscal policy at the local level.

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“…Generally, a shift in age structure changes the demand of citizens for public services, which in turn influences the expenses within the municipal tasks, since a lot of tasks are performed for specific age categories (Starke, 2021). Young people require a lot of public services without contributing through tax payments (Santis, 2020), as the share of income tax is depending on age structure. Therefore, the share of income taxpayers should be lower in the young and old age groups (Seuberlich, 2017).…”

Section: Socio-demographic Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Therefore, the share of income taxpayers should be lower in the young and old age groups (Seuberlich, 2017). Older people necessitate a lot of services but contribute with a smaller tax amount on their pensions (Santis, 2020). Consequently, the income tax revenues might be lower in LGs which offer a higher share of dependent population.…”

Section: Socio-demographic Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drivers and risk factors of German local financial sustainability focusing on adjusted income

Frintrup

Hilgers

2023

International Review of Administrative Sciences

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Analysing the financial sustainability of local governments is of great interest, as they offer a wide range of services and are close to citizens. Various organizations have pointed out the need to analyse the determinants of financial sustainability, and recent research has focused on several European countries, using adjusted income as a dependent variable. To fill the research gap in the context of German local governments, we conduct an empirical analysis with 5 years of data from 363 local governments from North Rhine–Westphalia to analyse the impact of socio-demographic and financial-economic factors on financial sustainability, focusing on the adjusted income. Our results indicate that financial sustainability is influenced by factors on which the local governments have no impact or at least only a limited impact. Specifically, the debt level and the level of population are identified as risk factors, whereas own taxes, rate support grants and the net cash surplus serve as drivers of financial sustainability. Points for practitioners Understanding the determinants of financial sustainability is important for politicians and public managers in order to improve their risk management and decision-making processes and to prevent future sustainability problems. This paper identifies several socio-demographic and financial-economic determinants of FS, on which the local governments have only a limited impact. Considering that the financial sustainability of German local governments in North Rhine–Westphalia largely depends on external factors might be of great interest for policymakers with regard to future financial crises.

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The Demographic and Economic Determinants of Financial Sustainability: An Analysis of Italian Local Governments

Cited by 13 publications

References 49 publications

Smart city perspectives in post-pandemic governance: Externalities reduction policy

Smart city perspectives in post-pandemic governance: Externalities reduction policy

Assessment of Financial Sustainability of Local Budgets in the Budget Management System Using Kohonen Maps

Drivers and risk factors of German local financial sustainability focusing on adjusted income

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