The Demography of the Five Intergenerational Reports

Abstract

Relative to the first intergenerational report (IGR) (2002), rises in older-age labour force participation rates, driven mainly by favourable economic conditions and, to a lesser extent, changes in policy, have helped reduce the projected fiscal deficit in subsequent IGRs.• The projected fiscal deficit has been reduced even more by increases in net overseas migration following the 2002 IGR. • The projected trend of falling fertility in the 2002 IGR also led to enhancements of family support policy aimed partly at sustaining the level of fertility. • The disturbing results of the 2002 IGR elevated population policy inAustralia to a level reminiscent of the period of postwar reconstruction following the Second World War. • As explained in the chapter, the rationale for the setting of the migration assumption for the 2021 IGR is flawed. • Future IGRs should include more sensitivity analysis based on a wider range of assumptions about demography and labour force participation.