The determinant of periodicity in Mycoplasma pneumoniae incidence: an insight from mathematical modelling

Abstract

Until the early 1990s, incidences of Mycoplasma pneumoniae (MP) infection showed three to five year epidemic cycles in multiple countries, however, the mechanism for the MP epidemic cycle has not been understood. Here, we investigate the determinant of periodicity in MP incidence by employing a mathematical model describing MP transmission dynamics. Three candidates for the determinant of periodicity were evaluated: school-term forcing, minor variance in the duration of immunity, and epidemiological interference between MP serotypes. We find that minor variation in the duration of immunity at the population level must be considered essential for the MP epidemic cycle because the MP cyclic incidence pattern did not replicate without it. Minor variation, in this case, is a less dispersed distribution for the duration of immunity than an exponential distribution. Various lengths of epidemic cycles, including cycles typically found in nature, e.g. three to five year cycles, were also observed when there was minor variance in the duration of immunity. The cyclic incidence pattern is robust even if there is epidemiological interference due to cross-immune protection, which is observed in the epidemiological data as negative correlation between epidemics per MP serotype.

Mycoplasma pneumoniae and health outcomes in children with asthma

“…Interestingly, mathematical modeling of Mp epidemic cycles suggests that duration of immunity influences the periodicity of Mp outbreaks and thus the timing of our study may have influenced our outcomes. 31 …”

Seasonality of pathogens causing community‐acquired pneumonia

“…Legionella pneumophila has been observed to occur more frequently in the warm seasons, and correlations with humidity and rainfall have been reported . A marked seasonal cyclicity has been reported for CAP due to Mycoplasma pneumoniae , with peak incidences occurring every 4 years . However, a comprehensive examination of seasonal variation of aetiologies throughout a prolonged observation period is lacking.…”

“…[16][17][18][19][20] A marked seasonal cyclicity has been reported for CAP due to Mycoplasma pneumoniae, with peak incidences occurring every 4 years. [21][22][23] However, a comprehensive examination of seasonal variation of aetiologies throughout a prolonged observation period is lacking.…”

Prevalence of Atypical Pathogens in Patients With Cough and Community-Acquired Pneumonia: A Meta-Analysis

“…Mycoplasma pneumoniae infection is thought to vary cyclically, 4,5 and has been the cause of outbreaks of LRTI. 6 Not to be confused with Chlamydia psittaci (which also causes respiratory infections but is contracted from birds), Chlamydophila pneumoniae is more common in children, but has been associated with subsequent serious adult disease as well.…”