The determinants of crop yields in Uganda: what is the role of climatic and non-climatic factors?

Abstract

Background: It is widely accepted that crop yields will be affected by climate change. However, the role played by climate in affecting crop yields visa -vis non-climatic stresses, is often unclear, limiting decision choices around efforts to promote increased production in light of multiple stresses. Results: This study quantifies the role of climatic and non-climatic factors affecting multiple crop yields in Uganda, utilizing a systematic approach which involves the use of a two-stage multiple linear regression to identify and characterize the most important drivers of crop yield, examine the location of the key drivers, identify the socioeconomic implications of the drivers and identify policy options to enhance agricultural production. We find that non-climatic drivers of crop yields such as forest area dynamics (p = 0.012), wood fuel (p = 0.032) and usage of tractors (0.041) are more important determinants of crop yields than climatic drivers such as precipitation, temperature and CO 2 emissions from forest clearance. Climatic drivers are found to multiply existing risks facing production, the significance of which is determined by variability and inadequate distribution of precipitation over the crop growing seasons. Conclusion: The significance and validity of these results is observed in an f-statistic of 50 for the final optimized model when compared to the initial model with an f-statistic of 19.3. Research and agricultural policies have to be streamlined to include not only the climatic elements but also the non-climatic drivers of global, regional and national agricultural systems.

The Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production in Uganda—An Integrated Systems Assessment with Water and Energy Implications

“…The results from this analysis indicate that despite the cumulative decrease in crop production under the driest climate future and vice-versa in the wettest, yearly variations will play a critical role in meeting local demands and minimum dietary requirements in the country. Uganda, on a national scale, receives abundant precipitation, but its variability and distribution are critical to sustaining crop yields [66]. Bringing areas under irrigation, as identified in the irrigation master plan and the NWRA, is a natural choice considering the amount of renewable water resource in the country.…”

Analysis of sesame seed production and export trends; challenges and strategies towards increasing production in Uganda

“…The rainfall distribution is often nonuniform, characterized by weeks of lack of rain (moisture) during the growing periods of sesame. This non-uniform distribution of rainfall during the crop growing season and inadequate water supply has not only affected sesame production in Uganda but other crops as well (Epule et al, 2018). In addition, the growing season of sesame may be interrupted by early cessation of rain resulting into low sesame yields especially of the local varieties that have long maturity days.…”

Scientific Innovation for the Sustainable Development of African Agriculture

“…Most SSA countries record huge differences between actual and projected crop yields (Epule et al, 2018). The agricultural activities are largely at subsistence levels, not strongly linked to industrial growth and increased markets, and dependent on both climatic and non-climatic factors.…”

“…Climatic variability with extreme weather events, such as droughts, floods, and extreme temperatures (heat and frosts), have a high impact on crop yield and qualities. Non-climatic drivers of low productivity include limited access to and utilization of sufficient external inputs, including irrigation, machines, certified seeds, fertilizers, pesticides, and unsustainable cultivation methods, such as slash-and-burn cultivation and deforestation for farmland expansion and wood fuel gathering, that lead to nutrient mining, soil erosion, and degraded lands (Epule et al, 2018). The underlying causes of the poor productivity in African agriculture are, therefore, diverse, but the challenges faced by small-scale farmers are mainly lack of capital and opportunities to invest in agricultural inputs, adequate technologies, and quality-improved seeds.…”