The Deviance Information Criterion: 12 Years on

Spiegelhalter, David; Best, Nicola; Carlin, Bradley P.; Linde, Angelika van der

doi:10.1111/rssb.12062

Cited by 562 publications

(462 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…whether the extended model is favored as compared to ΛCDM. To aid in this aim, we follow Joudaki et al (2017) in using the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC; Spiegelhalter, Best & Carlin 2002, also see Kunz, Trotta & Parkinson 2006, Liddle 2007, Trotta 2008, and Spiegelhalter et al 2014, given by the sum of two terms:…”

Section: Model Selection and Dataset Concordancementioning

confidence: 99%

KiDS-450: testing extensions to the standard cosmological model

Joudaki

Mead

Blake

et al. 2017

Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society

193

289

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We test extensions to the standard cosmological model with weak gravitational lensing tomography using 450 deg 2 of imaging data from the Kilo Degree Survey (KiDS). In these extended cosmologies, which include massive neutrinos, nonzero curvature, evolving dark energy, modified gravity, and running of the scalar spectral index, we also examine the discordance between KiDS and cosmic microwave background measurements from Planck. The discordance between the two datasets is largely unaffected by a more conservative treatment of the lensing systematics and the removal of angular scales most sensitive to nonlinear physics. The only extended cosmology that simultaneously alleviates the discordance with Planck and is at least moderately favored by the data includes evolving dark energy with a time-dependent equation of state (in the form of the w 0 − w a parameterization). In this model, the respective S 8 = σ 8 Ω m /0.3 constraints agree at the 1σ level, and there is 'substantial concordance' between the KiDS and Planck datasets when accounting for the full parameter space. Moreover, the Planck constraint on the Hubble constant is wider than in ΛCDM and in agreement with the Riess et al. (2016) direct measurement of H 0 . The dark energy model is moderately favored as compared to ΛCDM when combining the KiDS and Planck measurements, and remains moderately favored after including an informative prior on the Hubble constant. In both of these scenarios, marginalized constraints in the w 0 − w a plane are discrepant with a cosmological constant at the 3σ level. Moreover, KiDS constrains the sum of neutrino masses to 4.0 eV (95% CL), finds no preference for time or scale dependent modifications to the metric potentials, and is consistent with flatness and no running of the spectral index. The analysis code is publicly available at https://github.com/sjoudaki/kids450.

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Section: Model Selection and Dataset Concordancementioning

confidence: 99%

KiDS-450: testing extensions to the standard cosmological model

Joudaki

Mead

Blake

et al. 2017

Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society

193

289

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…For all indices and seasons, the DIC favoured the climate-informed models over the classical distribution for a larger number of stations compared to the slope 375 significance. DIC has received some criticism for not adequately penalising complex models and tending to choose overfitted models (Silva et al, 2017;Spiegelhalter et al, 2014). Our results show that at least compared to the slope significance, DIC is a weaker criterion for model selection.…”

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confidence: 81%

Do climate-informed extreme value statistics improve the estimation of flood probabilities in Europe?

Steirou

Gerlitz

Apel

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Abstract.The link between streamflow extremes and climatology has been widely studied during the last decades. 10However, a study investigating the effect of large-scale circulation variations on the distribution of seasonal discharge extremes at the European level is missing. Here we fit a climate-informed Generalized Extreme Value distribution (GEV) to about 600 streamflow records in Europe for each of the standard seasons, i.e. to winter, spring, summer and autumn maxima, and compare it with the classical GEV with parameters invariant in time.The study adopts a Bayesian framework and covers the period 1950 to 2016. Five indices with proven influence 15 on the European climate are examined independently as covariates, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the East Atlantic pattern (EA), the East Atlantic / West Russian pattern (EA/WR), the Scandinavia pattern (SCA) and the Polar-Eurasian pattern (POL).It is found that for a high percentage of stations the climate-informed model is preferred to the classical model, a result that provides evidence towards an improvement of the estimation of flood probabilities. Particularly for 20 NAO during winter, a strong influence on streamflow extremes is detected for large parts of Europe (preferred to the classical GEV for 44% of the stations). Climate-informed fits are characterized by spatial coherence and form patterns that resemble relations between the climate indices and seasonal precipitation, suggesting a prominent role of the considered circulation modes for flood generation. For certain regions, such as Northwest Scandinavia and the British Isles, variations of the climate indices result in considerably different extreme value distributions 25 and thus in highly different flood estimates for individual years. Plots of extreme streamflow with a probability of exceedance of 0.01 indicate that the deviation between the classical and climate-informed analysis concerns single years but can also persist for longer time periods. IntroductionThe understanding of extreme streamflow is a key issue for infrastructure design, flood risk management and (re- 30) insurance, and the estimation of flood probabilities has been in the focus of the scientific debate during recent decades. Traditionally, streamflow has been analysed with regard to associated hydro-climatic processes acting at the catchment scale. During recent years many studies have additionally focused on the link between local streamflow and larger-scale climate mechanisms, extending beyond the catchment boundaries ).An early example can be found in Hirschboeck (1988), who provides a detailed explanation of relationships This perception of climate-influenced extremes has been incorporated in flood frequency analysis by including climatic variables as covariates of extreme value distribution parameters. It is therefore assumed that the 45 probability density function (pdf) of streamflow is not constant in time but it is conditioned on external variables.This framework, usually called nonstationary, can b...

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“…Initial parameter starting values are estimated using maximum-likelihood methods, these starting values are then used in Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo estimation, run for 50,000 iterations, confirmed as adequate according to Raftery-Lewis diagnostics (Browne, 2016). The Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) is used to compare the fit of models; similar to likelihood-based criterions like the AIC, models with smaller DIC values are preferred (Spiegelhalter et al, 2014).…”

Section: Equationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Place and preference effects on the association between mental health and internal migration within Great Britain

2018

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A B S T R A C TIndividuals with mental health needs are more likely to migrate than the general population, but the effects of migration preference and place of residence are often overlooked. These issues are addressed through the application of a novel origin and destination multilevel model to survey data. In comparison to those with good mental health, individuals with poor mental health are more likely to make undesired moves and this is moderated, but not explained by place of residence. Implications for understanding the mental health and migration relationship, and its impact on service provision are then proposed.

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The Deviance Information Criterion: 12 Years on

Abstract: Summary The essentials of our paper of 2002 are briefly summarized and compared with other criteria for model comparison. After some comments on the paper's reception and influence, we consider criticisms and proposals forimprovement made by us and others.

Cited by 562 publications

References 26 publications

KiDS-450: testing extensions to the standard cosmological model

KiDS-450: testing extensions to the standard cosmological model

Do climate-informed extreme value statistics improve the estimation of flood probabilities in Europe?

Place and preference effects on the association between mental health and internal migration within Great Britain

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