The devil is in the details: An investigation of the relationships between conflict, food price and climate across Africa

Raleigh, Clionadh; Choi, Hyun Jin; Kniveton, Dominic

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.03.005

Cited by 174 publications

(116 citation statements)

References 71 publications

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“…Although these factors feature in reports about food riots, including the recent literature on food riots in SSA that highlight presence of excitable underemployed youth as a key factor [45] or the New York riots which highlight Jewish housewives as the rioters [23]. This difference in findings highlights a core challenge around predicting human behavior especially when it comes to spontaneous events such a riots, as those who might have indicated in our survey that they would riot might not necessarily be those who engage in future protest.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Do Dietary Changes Increase the Propensity of Food Riots? An Exploratory Study of Changing Consumption Patterns and the Inclination to Engage in Food-Related Protests

Legwegoh

Fraser

et al. 2015

Sustainability

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Abstract:Following widespread food riots in 2008, many people argued that high food prices cause political instability and civil unrest in the form of food riots. However, subsequent research has demonstrated that political, cultural, and economic factors confound the impact of price in determining whether a food riot occurs. This paper contributes to this growing body of literature by exploring: (1) the relationship between household demographic characteristics and reported intent to riot due to future food price rises; and (2) the relationships between people's diets and their reported intent to riot due to future food price rises. We hypothesize that local context, including demographic factors and dietary patterns, combine to predispose some groups of people to riot when food prices rise. This hypothesis is tested using household surveys (N = 300) and three focus groups discussions (N = 65) carried out in three cities in the Central African nation of Cameroon that experienced widespread food riots in 2008. Results show that some 70% of the respondents would riot if food prices went up. Also, in the event of food price rises: (1) households in Cameroon's major cities are more likely to riot than the citizens of smaller cities; (2) Households with relatively higher educational level, high incomes, are less likely to riot. Finally, the OPEN ACCESSSustainability 2015, 7 14113 relationship between dietary patterns and propensity to riot is not straightforward as changes in consumption of different food groups influence propensity to riot in different ways. Overall, this paper demonstrates that preemptive strategies designed to avoid future food riots in Cameroon must take into consideration these spatial, demographic, and dietary factors.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Do Dietary Changes Increase the Propensity of Food Riots? An Exploratory Study of Changing Consumption Patterns and the Inclination to Engage in Food-Related Protests

Legwegoh

Fraser

et al. 2015

Sustainability

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“…Much of the work in this area mines the contemporaneous records of weather anomalies and violence to conduct empirical analyses; however, qualitative cases studies and mixed-method approaches are also being applied. In the literature since AR5, Theisen (2017) concludes that there is some evidence of a link between weather anomalies and collective violence, with the strongest indication for studies that explicitly model the effects of shocks indirectly via, e.g., food production or migration to conflict, and more so for ongoing violence than for initiating new collective violence [e.g., 23,24]; however, he notes that part of the literature cautions against a dramatizing and simplistic focus on collective violence in the global South as this may be counterproductive in informing policy choices.…”

Section: Political Sciencementioning

confidence: 99%

Introduction to Special Issue: Disciplinary Perspectives on Climate Change and Conflict

Gilmore

2017

Curr Clim Change Rep

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Purpose of Review Researchers from five social science disciplines-anthropology, criminology, economics, geography, and political science-review the literature on climate change and conflict, focusing on the contributions since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s Fifth Assessment Report. Recent Findings These authors find little evidence for direct pathways from climate change to violence, especially for group-level violence and armed conflict. However, there is stronger evidence for indirect effects in agricultural and other vulnerable settings and for exacerbating ongoing violence rather than initiating new violence. The authors also emphasize the importance of governance and institutions, adaptive capacity, and potential cooperative behavior in moderating violence. Summary Looking across disciplines and employing the full range of research synthesis tools can improve the characterization and communication of the evidence. Focusing on interactions of climate mitigation and adaptation policies with conflict as well as opportunities for peace building can provide more actionable research for the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report.

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“…temporary versus longterm) relate to the risk of violent conflict. Nuanced relationships between environmental changes and conflict have been found to operate through a host of mediating circumstances, including livestock market price volatility [27], rising costs for food [28][29][30], and preferable conditions for cattle grazing that attract hostile communities to common areas [31] or facilitate livestock relocation after a raid [32]. In contrast, livelihood diversification [33], and robust institutions for negotiating access to common resources such as pasture or cropland [34,35] are found to have pacifying effects on the risk of violence.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The consequences of relocating in response to drought: human mobility and conflict in contemporary Kenya

Linke

Witmer

Ο’Loughlin

et al. 2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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As global temperatures rise, drought-induced human relocation is expected to increase. Using original national survey data from Kenya, we investigate whether people who report relocating due to drought are more likely to be victims of violence than people who do not move. We also examine whether this migrant sample supports the use of violence at higher levels than the general population, conditional on their experiences. We measure the duration of relocation (temporary versus permanent) as well as the characteristics of the arrival area, including co-ethnic demographics. Controlling for many individual-level and contextual variables, we find that those who have relocated are consistently more likely to be victims of violence than those who have not. We also find that those who relocated temporarily support the use of violence at higher levels than the general population if and only if they are themselves victims of violence. Vulnerable migrant populations may be subject to violence as observational aggregate studies suggest, but they are not likely to be the sources of violence unless victimized first.

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The devil is in the details: An investigation of the relationships between conflict, food price and climate across Africa

Cited by 174 publications

References 71 publications

Do Dietary Changes Increase the Propensity of Food Riots? An Exploratory Study of Changing Consumption Patterns and the Inclination to Engage in Food-Related Protests

Do Dietary Changes Increase the Propensity of Food Riots? An Exploratory Study of Changing Consumption Patterns and the Inclination to Engage in Food-Related Protests

Introduction to Special Issue: Disciplinary Perspectives on Climate Change and Conflict

The consequences of relocating in response to drought: human mobility and conflict in contemporary Kenya

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