Aims/hypothesis Previous metabolomics studies suggest that type 1 diabetes is preceded by specific metabolic disturbances. The aim of this study was to investigate whether distinct metabolic patterns occur in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) of children who later develop pancreatic beta cell autoimmunity or overt type 1 diabetes. Methods In a longitudinal cohort setting, PBMC metabolomic analysis was applied in children who (1) progressed to type 1 diabetes (PT1D, n = 34), (2) seroconverted to ≥1 islet autoantibody without progressing to type 1 diabetes (P1Ab, n = 27) or (3) remained autoantibody negative during follow-up (CTRL, n = 10). Results During the first year of life, levels of most lipids and polar metabolites were lower in the PT1D and P1Ab groups compared with the CTRL group. Pathway over-representation analysis suggested alanine, aspartate, glutamate, glycerophospholipid and sphingolipid metabolism were over-represented in PT1D. Genome-scale metabolic models of PBMCs during type 1 diabetes progression were developed by using publicly available transcriptomics data and constrained with metabolomics data from our study. Metabolic modelling confirmed altered ceramide pathways, known to play an important role in immune regulation, as specifically associated with type 1 diabetes progression.Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s00125-020-05107-6) contains peer-reviewed but unedited supplementary material, which is available to authorised users.* Partho Sen partho.sen@utu.fi * Mikael Knip