The Distribution of Climate Change Public Opinion in Canada

Abstract

While climate scientists have developed high resolution data sets on the distribution of climate risks, we still lack comparable data on the local distribution of public climate change opinions. This paper provides the first effort to estimate local climate and energy opinion variability outside the United States. Using a multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) approach, we estimate opinion in federal electoral districts and provinces. We demonstrate that a majority of the Canadian public consistently believes that climate change is happening. Belief in climate change’s causes varies geographically, with more people attributing it to human activity in urban as opposed to rural areas. Most prominently, we find majority support for carbon cap and trade policy in every province and district. By contrast, support for carbon taxation is more heterogeneous. Compared to the distribution of US climate opinions, Canadians believe climate change is happening at higher levels. This new opinion data set will support climate policy analysis and climate policy decision making at national, provincial and local levels.

Public perceptions of Lyme disease and climate change in southern Manitoba, Canada: Making a case for strategic decoupling of climate and health messages

“…In their landmark study on "Global Warming's Six Americas", Leiserowitz et al found that among the six categories of audiences in the American public -alarmed, concerned, cautious, disengaged, doubtful, and dismissive -belief in the reality of global warming and worry about the impacts were highest among the 'alarmed' and lowest among the 'dismissive' [62]. The results here also indicate more skepticism and denial in rural areas as compared to urban, which aligns with existing data on climate opinions in the region [42]. Humanity's role in causing climate change was debated in Morden and Brandon groups, where survey data indicates that only about half the population in the regions -45% and 51% respectivelybelieve that the earth is warming partly or mostly because of human activity, compared to 60% nationally [42].…”

“…Although high-resolution public opinion data on climate change in Canada is limited, research has shown that discourse and perceptions of climate change in the Prairies are unique compared to other parts of Canada. At the national level, rural areas and Prairie provinces have a high level of climate skepticism and denial [42]. An estimated 42%, 47%, and 57% of people in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba respectively, believe that the earth is warming partly or mostly because of human activity, compared to the national average of 60% [42].…”

“…At the national level, rural areas and Prairie provinces have a high level of climate skepticism and denial [42]. An estimated 42%, 47%, and 57% of people in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba respectively, believe that the earth is warming partly or mostly because of human activity, compared to the national average of 60% [42]. Studies investigating climate opinions among speci c groups in the Prairies, such as agricultural producers in Saskatchewan [43], have found similar results.…”

“…Values indicate percentage of the population that agrees with the corresponding statement. Data adapted from a national survey by Mildenberger et al [42].…”

Atmospheric change as a driver of change in the Canadian boreal zone1

“…Increased risks of natural hazards will influence how provincial and territorial governments, and municipalities invest in mitigation, adaptation, and relief measures (e.g., Hurlbert and Gupta 2016;Hope et al 2016;Lemprière et al 2017). Divergent societal views on ways to cope with atmospheric change (e.g., Tyrrell 2006;Mantyka-Pringle et al 2015;Mildenberger et al 2016) could yield opportunities to co-operate, or breed tensions across the boreal. The projected spread of climate-sensitive infectious diseases (see Berry et al 2014) and immigration will likely increase the need for economic, social, and health infrastructure.…”