The Divide Over Independence: Explaining Preferences for Secession in an Advanced Open Economy

Abstract

Anticipated trade, insurance, and fiscal shocks from independence structure preferences for secession independently from nonmaterial considerations. To test this claim, we draw from an original survey conducted in Catalonia before the 2017 regional election, which followed a suspended declaration of independence. Trade shocks produce differential effects depending on market specialization: Respondents working in sectors and at firms specializing in the host state market disproportionately oppose secession, whereas those specializing in foreign markets show no aversion to independence. Exclusion from public insurance strengthens preference for secession among the long‐term unemployed. Support for secession also increases with skill levels but not because of expected postindependence factor returns. The skilled population shows a better understanding of the institutional design of interterritorial redistribution. In a context of autonomy retraction, this group is more skeptical of the accommodation of regional demands within the union. Overall, we advance an individual‐level materialistic approach to the study of secession.

Parochial Linguistic Education: Patterns of an Enduring Friction within a Divided Catalonia

“…In a subsequent analysis, Oller et al (2020) suggested the additional, although relatively minor, influence of economic segmentation on the differential alignments in favour of or against secession. These findings were fully confirmed by surveys exploring the role of material interests in preferences for secession (Hierro and Queralt 2021) and through detailed analyses of recent electoral results (Llaneras 2021). Miley (2007) had already established that the operation of divergent modes of national identification in Catalonian society rested on an ethnolinguistic gap.…”

The Catalan Syndrome? Revisiting the Relationship Between Income and Support for Independence in Catalonia

“…Some recent work has tried to address them. Hierro and Queralt (2020) show that respondents working at sectors and firms specializing in the Spanish market are more reluctant toward independence, while those specializing in foreign markets are no more opposed. They also find an association with skill levels that they attribute to a better understanding of the institutional context of redistribution and hence a higher skepticism with regards to the possibilities of accommodation of regional demands within Spain.…”

“…The anti-austerity protests in Catalonia also influenced the movement's agenda that, in turn, reshaped its social bases. Hierro and Queralt (2020) provide a more nuanced account of the individual materialist reasons behind the independence push. They show how trade factors are relevant, especially for depressing support among those that work in firms and sectors oriented to the Spanish market.…”

Declarations of Independence after the Cold War: Abandoning grievance and avoiding rupture

“…On practical terms, scholars including Bartkus (2004), Beissinger (2002), and Bishai (2004) have inquired why secessionist demands emerge, while Butt (2017) focused on why some states respond with violence, while others employ concessions. Rodon and Guinjoan (2018) and Hierro and Queralt (2020) developed individual‐level approaches focusing on the identity, the social interactions and the professional occupation of the individual in order to explain public support for, or rejection of, secession.…”