The dynamics of attitudes toward immigrants: Cohort analyses for Western EU member states

Abstract

Public opinion climates on immigrants are subject to certain dynamics. This study examines two mechanisms for such dynamics in Western EU member states for the 2002–2018 period. First, the impact of cohort replacement and, second, the impact of periodic threat perceptions, namely, changing macroeconomic conditions and shifts in immigration rates. To date, empirical research on anti-immigrant sentiments rarely combines these two concepts simultaneously to disentangle the interplay of period and cohort effects and determine the factors for long- and short-term attitude changes in societies. Motivated by this gap in the literature, I conduct multiple linear regression analyses of pooled data from all waves of the European Social Survey to show that the process of cohort replacement has led to a substantially more positive opinion climate toward immigrants since the 2000s. However, results indicate that in the future, this positive development is likely to come to a halt since younger cohorts no longer hold significantly more immigrant-friendly attitudes than their immediate predecessors. Furthermore, we observe different period effects to impact cohorts’ attitudes. Fixed-effects panel analyses show that the effect of changing macroeconomic conditions on cohorts’ attitudes is low. Changes in immigration rates, however, lead to significantly more dismissive attitudes when immigrants originate from the Global South as opposed to when they enter from EU countries. These insights suggest that it is less economic or cultural threat perceptions, but ethnic prejudice that plays a key role for natives to oppose immigration. Overall, findings suggest that it is not either cohort or period effects driving large-scale attitude changes, but rather we observe an interplay of both.

Ethnic Stereotype Content Beyond Intergroup Relations Within Societies: Exploring the North-South Hypothesis for Competence and Warmth

“…The test of the hypothesis that the attitude to exclude or to admit foreigners to society among host members can be formed on the basis of a foreigners’ country of origin economic standing (i.e., the preference to exclude foreigners from relatively poor countries of origin than foreigners from relatively rich countries) provided some evidence for Europe as a whole (Gorodzeisky, 2010; Schmidt, 2021; see also Echabe & Gonzales Castro, 1996; Gheorghiu et al, 2022). 4 Researchers who work within the framework of human capital theory explain the social and economic situation of immigrants by the limited convertibility of human capital across national borders (Chiswick & Miller, 2015).…”

Eine migrationsfreundlichere Gesellschaft durch den Generationenwandel? Kohortenanalysen für Ost- und Westdeutschland

“…Ausgehend vom dynamischen Ansatz der Gruppenkonflikttheorie (Hopkins 2010;Olzak 1992) führt die Zuwanderung von Schutzsuchenden so zu verstärkt wahrgenommener Bedrohung für die Wirtschaftskraft und die Sozialsysteme des Aufnahmelands, aber auch für die kulturelle und ethnische Homogenität der Gesellschaft (Schmidt 2021).…”

“…Damit prägen und verändern neben Generationeneffekten auch bestimmte Periodeneffekte das allgemeine Meinungsklima zu Zugewanderten. Durch einen Anstieg des Zuwandereranteils oder eine stagnierende Wirtschaft verschärft sich, entsprechend der Gruppenkonflikttheorie, die Konkurrenzwahrnehmung durch Zuwanderer und damit die Bedrohungswahrnehmung der Mitglieder der dominanten Mehrheitsgesellschaft gegenüber Migrant*innen und führt zu deren verstärkter Ablehnung (Coenders/Scheepers 2004Gorodzeisky/Semyonov 2018;Olzak 1992;Hopkins 2010;Meuleman/Davidov/Billiet 2009;Schmidt 2021). Die zweite Fragestellung dieser Arbeit befasst sich daher mit den periodischen Wirkkräften auf der Kontextebene, die alle Generationen betreffen: Wie stabil sind die Einstellungen zu Zugewanderten innerhalb der Generationen, bei sich verändernden Bedrohungswahrnehmungen in Ost-und Westdeutschland?…”

Attitudes towards migrants and preferences for asylum and refugee policies before and during Russian invasion of Ukraine: The case of Slovakia

“…Common discourse and media were filled with compassion, and communications were much more positive than in the case of migrants and refugees originating from the Global South (Dingott Alkopher, 2018;Schmidt, 2021). Moreover, little voices opposed to accepting the refugees were heard during the initial phase of the invasion.…”