Abstract. Thaw and release of permafrost carbon (C) due to climate change is likely to
offset increased vegetation C uptake in northern high-latitude (NHL)
terrestrial ecosystems. Models project that this permafrost C feedback may
act as a slow leak, in which case detection and attribution of the feedback
may be difficult. The formation of talik, a subsurface layer of perennially
thawed soil, can accelerate permafrost degradation and soil respiration,
ultimately shifting the C balance of permafrost-affected ecosystems from
long-term C sinks to long-term C sources. It is imperative to understand and
characterize mechanistic links between talik, permafrost thaw, and
respiration of deep soil C to detect and quantify the permafrost C feedback.
Here, we use the Community Land Model (CLM) version 4.5, a permafrost and
biogeochemistry model, in comparison to long-term deep borehole data along
North American and Siberian transects, to investigate thaw-driven C sources
in NHL (> 55∘ N) from 2000 to 2300. Widespread talik at depth is
projected across most of the NHL permafrost region
(14 million km2) by 2300, 6.2 million km2 of which is
projected to become a long-term C source, emitting 10 Pg C by 2100,
50 Pg C by 2200, and 120 Pg C by 2300, with few signs of
slowing. Roughly half of the projected C source region is in predominantly
warm sub-Arctic permafrost following talik onset. This region emits only
20 Pg C by 2300, but the CLM4.5 estimate may be biased low by not
accounting for deep C in yedoma. Accelerated decomposition of deep soil
C following talik onset shifts the ecosystem C balance away from surface
dominant processes (photosynthesis and litter respiration), but
sink-to-source transition dates are delayed by 20–200 years by high
ecosystem productivity, such that talik peaks early (∼ 2050s, although borehole
data suggest sooner) and C source transition peaks late
(∼ 2150–2200). The remaining C source region in cold northern Arctic
permafrost, which shifts to a net source early (late 21st century), emits
5 times more C (95 Pg C) by 2300, and prior to talik formation due
to the high decomposition rates of shallow, young C in organic-rich soils
coupled with low productivity. Our results provide important clues signaling
imminent talik onset and C source transition, including (1) late cold-season
(January–February) soil warming at depth (∼ 2 m),
(2) increasing cold-season emissions (November–April), and (3) enhanced
respiration of deep, old C in warm permafrost and young, shallow C in organic-rich cold permafrost soils. Our results suggest a mosaic of processes that
govern carbon source-to-sink transitions at high latitudes and emphasize the
urgency of monitoring soil thermal profiles, organic C age and content, cold-season CO2 emissions, and
atmospheric 14CO2 as key indicators
of the permafrost C feedback.