“…Parties often form when either (violent or non-violent) conflict or emergent political polarization creates an issue or identity vacuum (Lipset and Rokkan, 1967;Kitschelt, 1992;LeBas, 2006). In South Africa, the historical record suggests that the Marikana massacre did exactly this, creating a geographically localized issue cleavage over which a non-trivial number of voters had intense preferences (Holmes, 2012;Mbete, 2015Mbete, , 2016. Two young politicians who had recently been frozen out of the ANC apparatus and were seeking opportunities to re-enter the fray -Julius Malema and Floyd Shivambu -perceived the events in Marikana as a political opportunity for organization and mobilization against the incumbent (Botiveau, 2014).…”