The Economic Impact of Climate Change on Canadian Commercial Navigation on the Great Lake

Abstract

Abstract:The decrease in water depths facing commercial navigation in the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River system is likely the greatest potential impact of climate change on freight transportation in Canada. This water transportation system is an effi cient means of transporting bulk and other commodities through a heavily industrialized part of North America. Great Lakes vessels, however, often have to limit their loads to maintain minimum under-keel clearances when water depths are restricted in harbours and connecting channels. Climate change due to increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases is expected to bring about lower water levels and further reduced depths in the Great Lakes, with consequent reductions in vessel cargo capacities and increases in shipping costs. The lower water levels predicted as a result of a doubling of the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide could increase annual transportation costs by 29 percent, more moderate climate change could result in a 13 percent increase in annual shipping costs, based on current prices. The impacts vary between commodities and routes.Résumé : Les coûts plus élevés auxquels fait face l'industrie du transport des marchandises dans le réseau fl uvial des Grands Lacs-Saint-Laurent ont été considérés comme étant le plus grand problème éventuel attribuable au changement climatique pour le transport des marchandises au Canada. Ce système de transport par eau constitue un moyen effi cace de transporter des cargaisons en vrac et autres produits de base en passant par une région fortement industrialisée de l'Amérique du Nord, ainsi qu'à destination et en provenance des marchés d'outre-mer. Le chargement des navires dans les Grands Lacs est souvent limité par les profondeurs d'eau des ports et des chenaux de communication, ce qui se traduit fréquemment par des profondeurs d'eau sous quille minimes. On prévoit que le changement climatique, en raison de la hausse des concentrations atmosphériques des gaz à effet de serre, entraînera une baisse des niveaux d'eau dans les Grands Lacs, qui à son tour donnera lieu à une réduction conséquente des capacités de cargaison et à une hausse des coûts d'expédition. Les niveaux d'eau plus bas prédits du fait des concentrations atmosphériques deux fois plus élevées de dioxyde de carbone pourraient entraîner une hausse de 29 pour cent des coûts de transport annuels. Un changement climatique plus modéré pourrait se traduire quant à lui par une hausse de 13 pour cent des coûts d'expédition, par rapport aux prix actuels. Les incidences varieront d'un type de marchandises et d'un itinéraire à l'autre. 270Canadian Water Resources Journal/Revue canadienne des ressources hydriques

Projected changes to winter temperature characteristics over Canada based on an RCM ensemble

“…For the transportation sector, decrease in the number of frost and ice days could result in reduced costs associated with snow removal and road management. With reduced winter ice cover, marine and river shipping could become more important for the transportation of goods and services and will reduce icebreaking costs in the future (Millerd 2005). On the other hand, decreases in the thickness and duration of lake and river ice could significantly affect the viability of many winter road networks, which are providing access to remote communities and mine and forest sites in northern Canada (Lemmen et al 2008).…”

Adaptation to Climate Change in the Transport Sector

“…Finally, changes in temperature and precipitation have consequences for riverine water levels. Low water levels will force inland waterway vessels to use only part of their capacity, which may considerably increase transportation costs in the future (see Jonkeren, Rietveld, & van Ommeren, 2007;Millerd, 2005;Olsen, Zepp, & Dager, 2005).…”

The potential impact of climate change on Great Lakes international shipping

“…Alternatively, dredging could be undertaken at a cost of up to $7 million. Millerd (2005) used water levels projected by a hydrologic model receiving input from a general circulation model to estimate the impact of climate change on annual vessel variable operating costs for shipments between Canadian ports and between Canadian and American ports. A doubling of the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide is projected, using the CCCma GCM1 general circulation model and IS92a emissions scenario, to lower average water levels by 0.23 to 1.62 m and increase variable vessel operating costs by 29%.…”

“…Since only broad groupings of commodities were used there was no impact of this reclassification. 5Millerd (2005) presents an analysis of the impact of lower water levels on shipments between Canadian ports and between Canadian and American ports.…”