In light of the recently passed 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, we assess the effect of margin changes on prices, the risk-sharing between speculators and hedgers, and the price stability of 20 commodity futures markets. We find that margin increases decrease the rate at which prices change, yet they impair the risk sharing function and they decrease market liquidity in certain markets. The regulator should set margins by taking the heterogeneity of commodity futures markets into account. Certain effects of margin changes diffuse across related markets though. Our results are robust to endogenously set margins by the exchanges.Keywords: Commodities, Hedging, Market liquidity, Margins, Speculators.JEL codes: G10, G14, G18, G28. * We would like to thank Viral Acharya, Angelos Antzoulatos, Evangelos Benos, Gikas Hardouvelis, Esben Hedegaard, Eirini Konstantinidi, Dimitris Malliaropoulos, Michael Neumann, Tarun Ramadorai, Theodoros Stamatiou, Dimitris Thomakos, Efthymios Tsionas, Christos Tsoumas, and Dimitris Vayanos for useful comments and discussions. Any remaining errors are our responsibility alone.
INTRODUCTIONTraditionally, futures exchanges use margins as a risk management tool; they are a payment that serves as a collateral deposit to eliminate credit risk (e.g., Telser 1981, Figlewski, 1984, Kahl et al., 1985, Gay et al., 1986, Fenn and Kupiec, 1993, Gemmill, 1994. Till recently, futures exchanges had the discretion to set and change margin rules. However, the 2003-2008 commodity boom (Arezki et al., 2014) has revived the discussion about whether commodity futures margin requirements should be regulated so that they can also be used as a policy tool to restrict speculation and drive commodity prices down. The recently passed 2010 Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act gives the authority to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to establish margin requirements so as to protect the financial integrity of futures markets, including the commodity futures ones. So far, CFTC has not exercised this authority, yet the view that it should do so gains popularity. 1 We investigate comprehensively the effect of margin changes on (1) commodity futures prices/returns, (2) the sharing of risk between speculators and hedgers, (3) commodity futures price stability and (4) the interaction between commodity markets characteristics. The study of the effect of margin changes on the above features of commodity markets is of interest to academics, investors and regulators for at least three reasons. First, it stands in the core of the historically ongoing debate 1 "..
.Mr. President, if CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler doesn't act soon to implement rules that will cut down on speculation in the oil futures markets, then you should consider not reappointing him.", Senator Nelson, in his letter toPresident Obama, April 2012.2 about whether margins should be regulated (for a review, see Kupiec, 1998). Second, it tests empirically the predictions of the theoretical literature on the effect of funding ...