The effect of climate change on the resilience of ecosystems with adaptive spatial pattern formation

Abstract

In a rapidly changing world, quantifying ecosystem resilience is an important challenge. Historically, resilience has been defined via models that do not take spatial effects into account. These systems can only adapt via uniform adjustments. In reality, however, the response is not necessarily uniform, and can lead to the formation of (self-organised) spatial patternstypically localised vegetation patches. Classical measures of resilience cannot capture the emerging dynamics in spatially self-organised systems, including transitions between patterned states that have limited impact on ecosystem structure and productivity. We present a framework of interlinked phase portraits that appropriately quantifies the resilience of patterned states, which depends on the number of patches, the distances between them and environmental conditions. We show how classical resilience concepts fail to distinguish between small and large pattern transitions, and find that the variance in interpatch distances provides a suitable indicator for the type of imminent transition. Subsequently, we describe the dependency of ecosystem degradation based on the rate of climatic change: slow change leads to sporadic, large transitions, whereas fast change causes a rapid sequence of smaller transitions. Finally, we discuss how pre-emptive removal of patches can minimise productivity losses during pattern transitions, constituting a viable conservation strategy.

Fairy circles reveal the resilience of self-organized salt marshes

“…Collectively, our results underline the value of addressing transient spatiotemporal patterns in ecosystems, as they provide a window into the formative processes of ecosystem development, providing a range of possible indicators that have hitherto received less attention in the self-organization literature ( 1 – 4 , 25 – 33 ). Our results also highlight the complexity of ecological feedback responses and the possibility of their co-occurrence and complementarity in driving distinct patterning mechanisms at both the local and ecosystem scales.…”

“…Stability corresponds to the tendency of a system to remain in a given (spatial) configuration despite the imposition of an external disturbance. The local or global stability of the proposed FCs models was obtained by studying the phase portrait and bifurcation structure of three models using the methods described in ( 5 , 33 ). The global stability of the equilibria of systems (1) and (2) shows that the largest eigenvalues λ 1,2 of Jacobian matrix hold the conditions of ℛe {λ 1,2 ( k )} < 0 for all wave number k .…”

“…Stability corresponds to the tendency of a system to remain in a given (spatial) configuration despite the imposition of an external disturbance. The local or global stability of the proposed FCs models was obtained by studying the phase portrait and bifurcation structure of three models using the methods described in (5,33). The global stability of the equilibria of systems (1) and (2) shows that the largest eigenvalues  1,2 of Jacobian matrix hold the conditions of ℛe{ 1,2 (k)} < 0 for all wave number k. However, a positive equilibrium is locally stable if its eigenvalues hold the conditions ℛe{ 1,2 (k)} > 0 for a nonnegative wave number k. The latter is termed diffusiondriven instabilities or Turing patterns resulting from positive feedback.…”

“…1, E and F ), from rings to concentric circles (fig. S4, A and B), and ultimately to a homogeneous vegetation as a succession of transient pattern, a phenomenon that has received limited attention in the field of spatial self-organization ( 1 – 4 , 33 , 34 ). In this study, we ask (i) how transient patterns can be used to infer distinctive ecological processes, and (ii) whether transient patterns better reflect the relationship between pattern and process, to elucidate which specific ecological feedback triggers the observed patterns.…”

Toward a low-carbon tourism for sustainable development: a study based on a royal project for highland community development in Chiang Rai, Thailand

“…Global Climate change is considered a top priority problem for humanity and the ecosystem all over the world (Hoegh-Guldberg et al 2019). It has created several impacts including extreme climatic hazards, disease outbreaks and environmental disruptions (Bastiaansen et al 2020). This global climate change and its effect arise from human development activities and energy-related carbon dioxide emissions (Tobelmann and Wendler 2020).…”