The effect of climate change on agro-climatic indicators in the UK

Arnell, Nigel W.; Freeman, Anna

doi:10.1007/s10584-021-03054-8

Cited by 35 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 39 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Further, prolonged heat is also an important indicator of crop heat stress (Arnell and Freeman, 2021); figures produced using max_maxT give very similar patterns to max_meanT (not shown).…”

Section: Association Between Climate Extremes and Wheat Yields In Each Crop Growth Stagementioning

confidence: 85%

“…However, the anomalous years (e.g. 1976 and 2013) suggest that this can occur, and recent research indicates that days exceeding heat stress temperatures for wheat are likely to increase under climate change (Arnell et al, 2021). The increase in high temperatures and their variability is evident in the Production phase across the three regions (max_maxT and var_maxT, Figure 7).…”

Section: Seasonal Projections Of Future Crop-growing Conditionsmentioning

confidence: 94%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Resilience of UK crop yields to changing climate extremes

Slater

Huntingford

Pywell

et al. 2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Recent extreme weather events have had severe impacts on UK crop yields, and so there is concern that a greater frequency of extremes could affect crop production in a changing climate. Here we investigate potential future impacts of climate projections on wheat, the most widely grown cereal crop globally, in a temperate country with currently favourable wheat-growing conditions. Past and projected climate conditions are considered for key wheat growth stages (Foundation, Construction and Production). Historically, following the plateau of UK wheat yields since the 1990s, we find there has been a recent significant increase in wheat yield volatility, which is partially explained by seasonal metrics of temperature and precipitation, including mean, extremes, and intra-seasonal variability. Strong associations between climate and yield anomalies occur during years with cumulative climate impacts across growth stages, when climate extremes ‘escape’ the ability of farmers to adapt through agronomic means. We then analyse the latest 2.2 km UK Climate Projections for the UK’s three main wheat-growing regions. Climate projections indicate that on average across the three regions, the Foundation growth stage (broadly 1st October to 9th April) is likely to become warmer and wetter, while the Construction (10th April to 10th June) and Production (11th June to 26th July) stages are likely to become warmer and slightly drier. An analogue approach, comparing historical climate conditions with future climate projections, reveals a mixed picture of future climate conditions for UK crop yields. Projected warmer winter night temperatures are likely to prove beneficial in the Foundation stage, but concurrent increases in heavy rain may be detrimental. Similarly, warmer and drier mean conditions may enhance yields during the Production stage, but increases in high temperatures and heat variability may increase plant stress, while decreases in rainfall may also threaten adequate water supply. Since future climatic conditions are likely to move outside the historically observed range, there may be challenges for agriculture to adapt management practices to realise any potential benefits.

show abstract

“…Further, prolonged heat is also an important indicator of crop heat stress (Arnell and Freeman, 2021); figures produced using max_maxT give very similar patterns to max_meanT (not shown).…”

Section: Association Between Climate Extremes and Wheat Yields In Each Crop Growth Stagementioning

confidence: 85%

Section: Seasonal Projections Of Future Crop-growing Conditionsmentioning

confidence: 94%

Resilience of UK crop yields to changing climate extremes

Slater

Huntingford

Pywell

et al. 2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Previous studies found divergence in trends of drought characteristics between SPI and SPEI in observations (Stagge et al, 2017;Karimi et al, 2020;Ionita and Nagavciuc, 2021), historical climate simulations (Chiang et al, 2021) and future climate projections (e.g. Arnell and Freeman, 2021;García-Valdecasas Ojeda et al, 2021;Wang et al, 2021;Ogunrinde et al, 2021), with SPEI indicating increased drying compared to SPI. Increases in PET under a changing climate, combined with the high sensitivity of SPEI to PET changes, cause amplified projections of climatological drying and even a reversal of wetting trends in some parts of the world compared to when only changes in precipitation are considered (Cook et al, 2014).…”

Section: Differences Between Spi and Spei Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…Increases in PET under a changing climate, combined with the high sensitivity of SPEI to PET changes, cause amplified projections of climatological drying and even a reversal of wetting trends in some parts of the world compared to when only changes in precipitation are considered (Cook et al, 2014). For the UK, Arnell and Freeman (2021) found that projected increases in drought frequency based on SPEI6 exceeded those based on SPI3, which is attributed to the inclusion of the effect of PET in SPEI, although the aggregation period difference likely amplified this effect. By applying the delta method using UKCP18 probabilistic projections, Arnell and Freeman (2021) with opposite signs (increasing for SPEI, decreasing for SPI).…”

Section: Differences Between Spi and Spei Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is one of the variables shown in the UK Water Resources Portal (https://eip.ceh.ac.uk/hydrology/water-resources), and has been used in earlier work on drought under climate change in the UK (e.g. Vidal and Wade, 2009;Arnell and Freeman, 2021). Since the introduction of the SPI, many other standardized indicators have been developed that apply the SPI standardization procedure to different (combinations of) drought-relevant variables.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Projected changes in droughts and extreme droughts in Great Britain strongly influenced by the choice of drought index

Reyniers

Osborn

Addor

et al. 2022

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Droughts cause enormous ecological, economical and societal damage, and are already undergoing changes due to anthropogenic climate change. Understanding, anticipating and communicating these changes is essential to a wide range of stakeholders. In this study, the projected impacts of climate change on future atmospheric droughts in Great Britain were assessed for two warming levels (2 °C and 4 °C above pre-industrial levels) using the UKCP18 regional climate projections. As projected changes can be very sensitive to the choice of drought index, two indices were compared: the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI, which unlike the SPI, accounts for increasing potential evapotranspiration). The SPI and SPEI were used to quantify drought frequency, extent and duration of all droughts and of only extreme droughts. To provide context, aridity and seasonal precipitation and potential evapotranspiration changes were also assessed, as well as seasonal contributions to dryness at a yearly time scale. The UKCP18 regional simulations project (strongly) increasing drought frequency and extent due to climate change based on the SP(E)I almost everywhere in Great Britain. Importantly, the relative increase in frequency and extent is much more pronounced for extreme droughts than for more moderate droughts. Increasing longer-term dry conditions can be attributed mostly to more frequent dry and extremely dry summers, for which normal to wet winters are decreasingly able to compensate (even where winters are projected to become wetter). In general, using the SPEI results in far greater increases in drought frequency and extent than using the SPI. These differences are so substantive that at +2 °C the SPEI6-based projected changes reach a similar magnitude to the SPI6-based changes at +4 °C. Finally, projected changes in the distribution of drought durations depend on the drought index, region and warming level. These results illustrate that the choice of atmospheric drought index can have a decisive influence on changes in projected drought characteristics, and therefore users of these indices should be aware of the importance of potential evapotranspiration in their intended context when choosing a drought index. The stark differences between SPI- and SPEI-based projections highlight the need to understand the interplay between increasing atmospheric evaporative demand and moisture availability under a changing climate.

show abstract

The impact of climate change on policy‐relevant indicators of temperature extremes in the United Kingdom

Arnell

Freeman

2021

Climate Resilience

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Climate change will increase the frequency of heatwaves in the United Kingdom and reduce the frequency of cold spells. This paper evaluates the effect of changes in climate as represented by UKCP18 climate projections on a series of indicators of heat and cold extremes relevant to policy in the United Kingdom. These indicators are expressed in terms of current critical thresholds beyond which alerts are issued or specific actions implemented, rather than impacts on health and well-being. The frequency and duration of heatwave and heat-health alerts increase under all scenarios, with the greatest absolute number of events in the south and east of England where the chance of hot weather events affecting worker productivity doubles by the 2020s. Cold weather events -triggering health and social care plans and benefit payments -will become less frequent, but the effects of climate change on cold events are much smaller than on hot events and they will continue to occur. Until at least the 2040s, the projected effects of climate change do not depend strongly on the assumed change in global emissions, and the range in possible changes is primarily determined by uncertainty in the change in temperature in the United Kingdom for a given emissions pathway. Beyond the 2050s, the impacts are strongly dependent on future emissions. Impacts in a high-emissions world will be considerably larger than in lowemissions world. The projected increase in heatwave alerts, and the duration and intensity of heatwaves, implies not only a need to review heatwave emergency planning arrangements -looking in particular at what should become regarded as 'normal' summer weather -but also increased efforts to reduce vulnerability to extreme heat events. At the same time, cold weather events will still continue to occur with a sufficient frequency that plans need to be maintained.

show abstract

The effect of climate change on agro-climatic indicators in the UK

Cited by 35 publications

References 39 publications

Resilience of UK crop yields to changing climate extremes

Resilience of UK crop yields to changing climate extremes

Projected changes in droughts and extreme droughts in Great Britain strongly influenced by the choice of drought index

The impact of climate change on policy‐relevant indicators of temperature extremes in the United Kingdom

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About