The effect of climate-change-related heat waves on mortality in Spain: uncertainties in health on a local scale

Roldán, Esther; Gómez, Manuel Asensio; Pino, M. Rosa; Pórtoles, Javier; Linares, Cristina; Díaz, Julio

doi:10.1007/s00477-015-1068-7

Cited by 22 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…The projected doubling in the number of hot days from the reference period (2009–2013) to the end of the first future period (2045) over this period is in line with other studies ( Roldan et al, 2016 ). Evidently, this increase in hot days is compatible with IPCC predictions ( IPCC, 2013 ), which indicate that heat waves will become increasingly frequent in Europe.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

“…The impact of both heat and cold on populations' health is known to change over time, not only in terms of threshold temperatures, but also in terms of impacts as measured by RR s and AR s ( Diaz et al, 2015 , Miron et al, 2015 , Roldan et al, 2016 ). This is a consequence of progressive adaptation to heat by the population ( Bobb et al, 2014 ) and the ensuing prevention plans ( Diaz et al, 2015 ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Heat and health in Antwerp under climate change: Projected impacts and implications for prevention

Martínez

Díaz

Hooyberghs

et al. 2018

Environment International

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BackgroundExcessive summer heat is a serious environmental health problem in several European cities. Heat-related mortality and morbidity is likely to increase under climate change scenarios without adequate prevention based on locally relevant evidence.MethodsWe modelled the urban climate of Antwerp for the summer season during the period 1986–2015, and projected summer daily temperatures for two periods, one in the near (2026–2045) and one in the far future (2081–2100), under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. We then analysed the relationship between temperature and mortality, as well as with hospital admissions for the period 2009–2013, and estimated the projected mortality in the near future and far future periods under changing climate and population, assuming alternatively no acclimatization and acclimatization based on a constant threshold percentile temperature.ResultsDuring the sample period 2009–2013 we observed an increase in daily mortality from a maximum daily temperature of 26 °C, or the 89th percentile of the maximum daily temperature series. The annual average heat-related mortality in this period was 13.4 persons (95% CI: 3.8–23.4). No effect of heat was observed in the case of hospital admissions due to cardiorespiratory causes. Under a no acclimatization scenario, annual average heat-related mortality is multiplied by a factor of 1.7 in the near future (24.1 deaths/year CI 95%: 6.78–41.94) and by a factor of 4.5 in the far future (60.38 deaths/year CI 95%: 17.00–105.11). Under a heat acclimatization scenario, mortality does not increase significantly in the near or in the far future.ConclusionThese results highlight the importance of a long-term perspective in the public health prevention of heat exposure, particularly in the context of a changing climate, and the calibration of existing prevention activities in light of locally relevant evidence.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Heat and health in Antwerp under climate change: Projected impacts and implications for prevention

Martínez

Díaz

Hooyberghs

et al. 2018

Environment International

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“…The large economic and societal impacts of extreme heat across sectors is another common theme; for example, extreme heat can increase the price of electricity [132], decrease labor productivity [120], and affect social stability and violent crime rates [133]. In the small city of Zaragoza, Spain, the cost of heat events in terms of health-related impacts alone was estimated at approximately USD $100,000 per year [134].…”

Section: Impactsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Review of Recent Advances in Research on Extreme Heat Events

Horton

Mankin

Lesk

et al. 2016

Curr Clim Change Rep

361

229

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Reviewing recent literature, we report that changes in extreme heat event characteristics such as magnitude, frequency, and duration are highly sensitive to changes in mean global-scale warming. Numerous studies have detected significant changes in the observed occurrence of extreme heat events, irrespective of how such events are defined. Further, a number of these studies have attributed present-day changes in the risk of individual heat events and the documented global-scale increase in such events to anthropogenic-driven warming. Advances in process-based studies of heat events have focused on the proximate land-atmosphere interactions through soil moisture anomalies, and changes in occurrence of the underlying atmospheric circulation associated with heat events in the midlatitudes. While evidence for a number of hypotheses remains limited, climate change nevertheless points to tail risks of possible changes in heat extremes that could exceed estimates generated from model outputs of mean temperature. We also explore risks associated with compound extreme events and nonlinear impacts associated with extreme heat.

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“…The daily frequency of IPV help line telephone calls, as a reflection of IPV exposure, and frequency of police reports filed, as a proxy for demand for help, are indicators that may permit identifying possible temporal patterns in IPV. Time series analysis using autoregressive integrated moving average models (ARIMA) [17] is useful in the study of the behavior of public health indicators, both from a predictive and a diagnostic perspective [18][19][20][21]. We hypothesized that IPV may show a temporal pattern.…”

Section: A N U S C R I P Tmentioning

confidence: 99%