The effect of demographic and lifestyle changes on the burden of breast cancer in Iranian women: A projection to 2030

Abstract

Iran is rapidly becoming an "ageing society" with a related increase in cancer incidence including breast cancer. This paper evaluates the trend in breast cancer incidence from the past to the present, in order to predict the future burden in Iran and to quantify the effect of changes in known risk factors on incidence over time. Currently, breast cancer incidence in Iran is low with approximately 5000 new cases annually. Under conservative assumptions, the number of new cases of breast cancer in 2030 will be more than 15000. In addition to demographic factors, changes in the prevalence of established risk factors such as reproductive factors and obesity are likely to result in changes in breast cancer patients over time. Extrapolating the increasing prevalence of obesity to the future, we expect that this specific factor will strongly contribute to the increased breast cancer incidence in the future unless preventive measures counteract this effect.

Age at Diagnosis and Breast Cancer Survival in Iran

“…Given the increasing trend in breast cancer incidence [19] and the large number of young age cases in Iran, it is crucial to gain a better understanding of disease characteristics and clinical consequences of young age breast cancer in order to guide health policy makers on resource allocation, diagnosis, and treatment facilities. In this respect, our study examines the relative survival of breast cancer using a relatively large series of patients from different regions of Iran.…”

The Prediction Incidence of the Three Most Common Cancers Among Iranian Military Community During 2007-2019: a Time Series Analysis.

“…Also, different factors like changing in lifestyle, increasing the risk factors such as obesity, aging, decreasing parity, changes in menstrual and reproductive patterns among women and using menopausal hormone therapy should be regarded. Furthermore, the role of screening programs such as self-examination and mammography should not be neglected because using these methods can increase the number of diagnosed new cases in the early stage of the diseases [17-23]. …”

Breast cancer research in Iran: a scientometric analysis of publications output from 1991 to 2015 in Scopus

“…Although the number of papers have increased over 1991–2015, breast cancer cases are increasing too. Iran has the highest incidence of cancer in the Middle East at 110 cases per 100 000 population per year, leading to 105 deaths every day (9, 19). Iran is quickly moving toward an “elderly society” with an associated growth in cancer incidence, including breast cancer (19).…”

“…Iran has the highest incidence of cancer in the Middle East at 110 cases per 100 000 population per year, leading to 105 deaths every day (9, 19). Iran is quickly moving toward an “elderly society” with an associated growth in cancer incidence, including breast cancer (19). Statistics show that the prevalence of non-communicable diseases such as cancer increased dramatically in Iran, also, the results of the Iranian Cancer Registry, displays that the screening programs are not yet operative in the initial screening of the cases (20).…”

“…Statistics show that the prevalence of non-communicable diseases such as cancer increased dramatically in Iran, also, the results of the Iranian Cancer Registry, displays that the screening programs are not yet operative in the initial screening of the cases (20). This increases significant concern for law makers to describe suitable diagnostic and treatment facilities, and improve breast cancer control policies in Iran (19). It seems that more effort should be made to control breast cancer, including screening and diagnostic programs also conducting supported studies in this field.…”