The effect of precipitation and temperature on wheat yield in Turkey: a panel FMOLS and panel VECM approach

Doğan, Hasan Gökhan; Kan, Arzu

doi:10.1007/s10668-018-0298-5

Cited by 20 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 27 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…ARDL approach estimations reveal negatively effect of precipitation and temperature increase, respectively, on the agricultural output. Dogan and Karakas (2018) confirmed the effect of temperature and rainfall on the agricultural production of Turkey by employing panel data methods, including panel cointegration and panel dynamic ordinary least squares. The contribution of these studies to the formation of a substantial body of knowledge is undeniable.…”

Section: Area Productionmentioning

confidence: 70%

Addressing the long- and short-run effects of climate change on major food crops production in Turkey

Chandio

Gökmenoğlu

Ahmad

2021

Environ Sci Pollut Res

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study assessed the long-run (LR) and short-run (SR) impacts of climatic and non-climatic factors, i.e., CO 2 emissions (CO 2 e), average level of temperature (ALT), average level of precipitation (ALP), area harvested of wheat and rice crops (AHW and (AHR), domestic credit (DCR), and agricultural labor (ALB) on wheat and rice production (WP and RP) in Turkey by using annual time series data ranging from 1980 to 2016 and by employing several econometric techniques. The autoregressive distributed lag-bounds (ARDL) approach and the Johansen and Juselius cointegration (JJC) test confirmed a valid long-term connection among underlying variables. The estimation results from the ARDL model reveal that climatic factors such as CO 2 emissions and temperature adversely affected wheat production in the long run as well as in the short run, whereas precipitation positively improved wheat production in both periods. Further results indicate that non-climatic factors like area harvested of wheat and domestic credit positively and significantly enhanced wheat production in the long run and short run. Similarly, CO 2 emissions also adversely affected rice production in both periods, while temperature and precipitation positively contributed towards rice production in both cases. In addition, area harvested of rice positively and significantly boosted rice production in the long run as well as in the short run, while domestic credit negatively influenced rice production in the long run but in the short run positively improved rice production. Additionally, the outcomes of the VECM Granger Causality for both rice and wheat production confirm that both climatic and non-climatic variables have a strong influence on the production of both crops. This study found that climate change has a deleterious influence on both wheat and rice production; therefore, the study suggests that temperature-resistant varieties of both crops should be developed and introduced by agricultural research institutions. In addition to this, up-to-date information is more needed related to climate change, and in the farming communities, it should be provided by agricultural extension workers.

show abstract

Section: Area Productionmentioning

confidence: 70%

Addressing the long- and short-run effects of climate change on major food crops production in Turkey

Chandio

Gökmenoğlu

Ahmad

2021

Environ Sci Pollut Res

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…It was reported in the process-based crop model simulations that a 1°C increase in local temperature will decrease wheat yield by 3.3% (Wilcox and Makowski, 2014). Similarly, it was estimated that a 1% increase in air temperature may decrease wheat yield by 0.84%, 0.43%, and 0.48% in the slight, moderate, and severe drought regions of Turkey, respectively (Doğan and Kan, 2019). Also, Sayılğan (2016) reported that a 1°C increase during the wheat growth period in normal conditions will result in a 5.7 kg da -1 yield loss in summer wheat.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 94%

“…In other words, the lack of precipitation in bolting and grain filling periods from March to mid-May may cause large losses in yield rates (Soylu and Sade, 2012). In a different perspective, it was estimated that a 1% increase in precipitation may increase wheat yield as 0.20%, 0.12%, and 0.09% in slight, moderate, and severe drought regions of Turkey, respectively (Doğan and Kan, 2019).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relationships of Wheat, Dry Bean and Chickpea Yields with Global Climate Change in Suşehri District, Turkey

Sümbül

Sönmez

2021

Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Tarım Bilimleri Dergisi

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The long-term impact of atmospheric events is defined as climate. Agricultural activities are more affected by climate change since they mostly rely on nature. Agricultural activities may also induce climate change. Therefore, it is valuable to know how agricultural activities are affected by climate change. Therefore, this study was conducted to assess long-term changes in climate and agricultural products and mutual relationships between them in the Suşehri district of Sivas province located in the Kelkit Basin. Climate (air temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity) and yield (crops of wheat, dry bean, and chickpea) data of the 1991 -2017 period were used. Long-term temporal changes were tested with the nonparametric Mann-Kendall trend test. Relationships were analyzed with the use of the Cochrane-Orcutt estimation regression. The air temperature showed increasing tendency both annually and seasonally, and also had negative effects on wheat yield. Relative humidity showed a positive relationship with the wheat yields both annually and seasonally. Any climate data did not have a significant effect on chickpea and dry bean yields. If the temperature increase continues in the future, negative effects of climate change on agricultural products of the region will be inevitable. It is likely that agriculture in the region will shift to higher altitudes in time. Present findings could be used for the entire Kelkit Basin, which is located in the same climate and geographical zone as Suşehri district.

show abstract

“…Accordingly, evaluating the impact of climatic change on Iran's potato production in the future to ensure food security and decrease the adverse impacts of climate change is a vital need. Previous studies regarding the evaluation of climate change impacts commonly have used two models: (1) crop simulation models [30][31][32][33][34][35] and (2) regression models [2,10,12,[36][37][38]. Crop simulation models, including APSIM-Potato, CERES-Rice, SUBSTOR-Potato, and CERES-Maize are employed in controlled agronomic experiments to predict the effects of climatic change on crop yield under different climatic scenarios [13,39].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change and Sustainability of Crop Yield in Dry Regions Food Insecurity

et al. 2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The main purpose of the study was to investigate the effects of climatic change on potato yield and yield variability in Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) of Iran during 2041–2070 (2050s). The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was performed in this study to downscale the outputs of the General Circulation Model (GCM) and to obtain local climate projections under climate scenarios for a future period. The Just and Pope Production function was used to investigate the impacts of climatic change on potato yield. The results showed that the effects of future climatic change on potato yield and its variability would vary among the different AEZs. Potato yield would change in the range from −11% to 36% across different AEZs during the 2050s. Yield variability is expected to vary from −29% to 6%. Much more generally, the results indicated that the major potato producing zones would experience a decrease in mean potato yield in the presence of climate change. Our findings would help policymakers and planners in designing appropriate policies to allocate the lands under potato cultivation among different zones. These results also have important implications for adopting ecological zone-specific strategies to mitigate the reduction in potato yield and meet food security.

show abstract

The effect of precipitation and temperature on wheat yield in Turkey: a panel FMOLS and panel VECM approach

Cited by 20 publications

References 27 publications

Addressing the long- and short-run effects of climate change on major food crops production in Turkey

Addressing the long- and short-run effects of climate change on major food crops production in Turkey

Relationships of Wheat, Dry Bean and Chickpea Yields with Global Climate Change in Suşehri District, Turkey

Climate Change and Sustainability of Crop Yield in Dry Regions Food Insecurity

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About