2021
DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.12524
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The effect of shocks to GDP on employment in SADC member states during COVID‐19 using a Bayesian hierarchical model

Abstract: Using a simple Bayesian ‘mixed effects’ hierarchical model we provide econometric estimates of annual 2020 employment losses in the context of the COVID‐19 pandemic for 15 SADC member states on the basis of historical GDP data between 2000 and 2019 and 2020 forecasts. Our mixed effects model consists of country‐varying coefficients, as well as ‘fixed’ (pooled) coefficients. This allows us to fully explore variation between countries. The model provides estimates for losses in total employment and women's emplo… Show more

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Cited by 8 publications
(7 citation statements)
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“…Businesses' unwillingness to recruit women could lower women's involvement in the labor force. According to research, greater employment of women is linked to improved socioeconomic development, labor productivity, and gross domestic product (GDP) (Alon et al, 2022;Strauss et al, 2021;Voumik et al, 2023). The reverse outcome, which would be to limit or impede national progress, may result from excluding women from the workforce.…”
Section: Figure 4 -Labor Force Participation By Gendermentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Businesses' unwillingness to recruit women could lower women's involvement in the labor force. According to research, greater employment of women is linked to improved socioeconomic development, labor productivity, and gross domestic product (GDP) (Alon et al, 2022;Strauss et al, 2021;Voumik et al, 2023). The reverse outcome, which would be to limit or impede national progress, may result from excluding women from the workforce.…”
Section: Figure 4 -Labor Force Participation By Gendermentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In the wake of COVID-19, workers were trapped in precarious employment with a large number of people losing their jobs (Matilla-Santander et al, 2021;Strauss et al, 2021). Pinilla et al (2021) estimated the unemployment rate in the Spanish employment market in 2020 and found that there was a cumulative increase of 11.9% in the rate of unemployment due to the outbreak of COVID-19.…”
Section: Unemployment Under Covid-19 and Associated Mental Health Pro...mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The findings showed that a large share of workers suffered wage cuts and job losses, with private sector and middle‐aged workers being most affected. Strauss et al ( 2021 ) applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to examine the effects of shocks to GDP on employment in the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) during COVID‐19. The authors found that most SADC countries will experience loss of wage income more than 10% of GDP through job losses and/or reductions in wages and working hours.…”
Section: Summary Of Relevant Literaturementioning
confidence: 99%