The Effect of Temperature on Anopheles Mosquito Population Dynamics and the Potential for Malaria Transmission

Abstract

The parasites that cause malaria depend on Anopheles mosquitoes for transmission; because of this, mosquito population dynamics are a key determinant of malaria risk. Development and survival rates of both the Anopheles mosquitoes and the Plasmodium parasites that cause malaria depend on temperature, making this a potential driver of mosquito population dynamics and malaria transmission. We developed a temperature-dependent, stage-structured delayed differential equation model to better understand how climate determines risk. Including the full mosquito life cycle in the model reveals that the mosquito population abundance is more sensitive to temperature than previously thought because it is strongly influenced by the dynamics of the juvenile mosquito stages whose vital rates are also temperature-dependent. Additionally, the model predicts a peak in abundance of mosquitoes old enough to vector malaria at more accurate temperatures than previous models. Our results point to the importance of incorporating detailed vector biology into models for predicting the risk for vector borne diseases.

Desiccation tolerance as a function of age, sex, humidity and temperature in adults of the African malaria vectorsAnopheles arabiensisPatton andAnopheles funestusGiles

“…Work showing that cuticular hydrocarbon amount and composition can change substantially with circumstances in Anopheles mosquitoes (Caputo et al, 2005;Reidenbach et al, 2014;Wagoner et al, 2014) bears out this idea. Irrespective of its cause, including age-related variation in tolerance of abiotic conditions is important for improving mechanistic models of population dynamics in mosquitoes (Styer et al, 2007;Beck-Johnson et al, 2013).…”

Meteorological Parameters and Mosquito Abundance in Pashan Area of Pune, India during South West Monsoon and Post-Monsoon Seasons in 2016

“…A negative correlation indicated that mosquito abundance is high when DRT is low (SW Monsoon) and vice versa. Impacts of temperature on population dynamics and vector competence are complex (Beck-Johnson et al, 2013). Mosquitoes are sensitive to temperature throughout their life cycle and it has been shown by mathematical modeling studies that the fluctuations in diurnal temperatures may affect the mosquito life cycle and malaria transmission (Beck-Johnson et al, 2017).…”

Seasonality of birth defects in West Africa: could congenital Zika syndrome be to blame?

“…There are no data on dengue cases available from the hospital. However, the temperature ranges of the peak transmission of malaria and dengue are overlapping [mid 20's ºC for malaria, per (Beck-Johnson et al 2013); 23-34ºC for DENV, per (Mordecai et al 2017)]. Therefore, we expect that the transmission patterns would be similar.…”

“…Therefore, we expect that the transmission patterns would be similar. Beck-Johnson, L. M., et al (2013). "The effect of temperature on Anopheles mosquito population dynamics and the potential for malaria transmission."…”