The Effect of Urbanization on China’s Fertility

Guo, Zhen; Wu, Zheng; Schimmele, Christoph M.; Li, Shuzhuo

doi:10.1007/s11113-012-9230-0

Cited by 47 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…First, some individual and household characteristics may explain fertility intentions, such as the changing marriage rate, the average age at marriage (Feeney & Wang, 1993), cohabitation and separation (Kohler, Billari, & Ortega, 2002), contraceptive practice (Goldstein, Sobotka, & Jasilioniene, 2009), the role of women's socioeconomic characteristics including labour market engagement (Engelhardt, Kögel, & Prskawetz, 2004) and educational engagement and attainment (Hoem, Neyer, & Andersson, 2006), as well as ideational shifts that influence attitudes towards gender roles and childbearing (Kulu & Boyle, 2009). Second, it has also been recognized that fertility intentions are influenced by institutional structures and policies (Aassve, Burgess, Propper, & Dickson, 2006), such as the national fertility policy (Feyisetan & Casterline, 2000;Wang, Zhang, & Wu, 2016), urbanization, and socioeconomic development (Guo, Wu, Schimmele, & Li, 2012). In the Chinese context, we identify the following socioeconomic factors that may be particularly relevant to the fertility intentions of the floating population.…”

Section: Socioeconomic Correlates Of Fertility Intentions Among Chimentioning

confidence: 99%

Fertility intentions of having a second child among the floating population in China: Effects of socioeconomic factors and home ownership

Zhou

Guo

2019

Population Space and Place

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The adoption of the universal two‐child policy in late 2015, replacing the one‐child policy, signals a dramatic shift in China's fertility policy. The 2016 China Migrants Dynamic Survey provides a nationally representative dataset that enables us to reveal, for the first time, the socioeconomic correlates of fertility intentions of having a second child among China's large migrant population. Using a multilevel analytical framework, we find that male, younger, and more affluent migrants, those from minority ethnic groups, individuals migrating from rural areas, those whose first child is a girl, those at 5 years after having the first child, and migrants living in economically less developed cities are more likely to express the intention to have a second child. Moreover, our study establishes a correlation between home ownership and fertility intentions. Migrants who own their own home in the destination city express lower intentions to have a second child, compared with those who are renting. We suggest a proposition about this counterintuitive relationship between home ownership and lower fertility intentions: home ownership and childbearing compete for the limited financial resources of migrants who are socioeconomically disadvantaged in China.

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Section: Socioeconomic Correlates Of Fertility Intentions Among Chimentioning

confidence: 99%

Fertility intentions of having a second child among the floating population in China: Effects of socioeconomic factors and home ownership

Zhou

Guo

2019

Population Space and Place

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“…One fundamental factor highlighted in the literature is the inverse relationship between urbanization and fertility (Guo et al 2012;Kulu 2013). This relationship is seen in Figure 1 in county level data from China's 2010 Population Census, where the urban population is in terms of those living in urban areas in the left panel and those with urban hukou in the right panel.…”

Section: Background and Literaturementioning

confidence: 98%

“…The time-series data show the same inverse relationship; from 1970 to 2014, the share of the urban population increased from about one-sixth to one-half and the TFR fell from 5.7 to 1.5 (World Bank 2016). Moreover, urbanization is forecast to be the main factor behind China's future fertility decline (Guo et al 2012).…”

Section: Background and Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The tradeoff focused on in this study is that China is much less urbanized than typical for a country of its income level; the 2010 census showed a de facto urban population that was just under one-half of the total population (Chan & Wan 2017). Urban women have lower fertility rates than rural women (Guo et al 2012), and China must continue urbanizing to increase productivity and avoid the 'middle income trap' and, thus, further downward pressure on fertility is likely.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

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Location or Hukou: What Most Limits Fertility of Urban Women in China?

Liang

Gibson

2017

Asia & Pacific Policy Stud

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China's fertility rate is below replacement level. The government is attempting to increase this rate by relaxing the one‐child policy. China faces a possible tradeoff because further urbanization is needed to raise incomes but may reduce future fertility. We decompose China's rural–urban fertility gaps using both de facto and de jure criteria for defining the urban population. The fertility‐depressing effects of holding urban hukou are more than three times larger than effects of urban residence. Less of the rural–urban fertility gap by hukou status is due to differences in characteristics than is the case for the fertility gap by place of residence.

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“…Even though urbanization and migration to the city have been consistently linked to fertility decline (Goldstein, White, & Goldstein, ; Guo, Wu, Schimmele, & Li, ; Mason, ), the density and diversity of cities of the developing world bring along diverse reproductive strategies that generate a wide range of fertility levels (Montgomery, ). Studies of intra‐urban fertility have discovered pockets of above average fertility levels within the city comparable to those of rural areas (Weeks, Getis, Hill, Agyei‐Mensah, & Rain, ), and divergences resulting from changes in reproductive behavior taking place at specific age groups (Weeks et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fertility and urban context: A case study from Ghana, West Africa, using remotely sensed imagery and GIS

Benza

Weeks

Stow

et al. 2017

Population Space and Place

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Sub‐Saharan Africa has the highest levels of fertility in the world, despite rapid urban growth in most nations of the region. While there are many reasons for the fact that fertility decline is slow in Africa, we hypothesize that the relationship between fertility and urbanization is obscured by the fact that urbanization takes place along a gradient. In the most urban places (e.g., neighborhoods of the largest cities), fertility is apt to be very low, but most urban residents are residing in places that are somewhere along a continuum from completely rural to the most urban possible. All previous attempts to define that urban gradient and relate it to fertility levels rely in one form or another on census data. Because sub‐Saharan‐African countries are among the least prolific in terms of census gathering, a measure that relies solely on satellite imagery to gage a place's position along the urban gradient could be extremely useful. This paper describes a methodology for doing this and then uses data from the West African country of Ghana to examine how spatial patterns of land cover are associated with fertility. Satellite imagery and landscape metrics are used to create an urban context definition based on landscape patterns using a gradient approach. Census data are used to model the association between urban context and fertility through ordinary least square regression and spatial autoregressive models. Results indicate that there are significant differences in fertility between different urban contexts.

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The Effect of Urbanization on China’s Fertility

Cited by 47 publications

References 20 publications

Fertility intentions of having a second child among the floating population in China: Effects of socioeconomic factors and home ownership

Fertility intentions of having a second child among the floating population in China: Effects of socioeconomic factors and home ownership

Location or Hukou: What Most Limits Fertility of Urban Women in China?

Fertility and urban context: A case study from Ghana, West Africa, using remotely sensed imagery and GIS

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