The effectiveness of calibrated versus default distance decay functions for geographic profiling: a preliminary examination of crime type

Emeno, Karla; Bennell, Craig

doi:10.1080/1068316x.2011.621426

Cited by 13 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…Such systems are being used more and more for investigative purposes, yet there is presently little research considering how different functions affect the efficiency with which these systems operate (Canter et al, 2000;Santilla, Zappala, Laukkanen & Picozzi, 2003;Canter and Hammond, 2006;Emeno, 2008).…”

Section: Effectiveness Of Geographical Offender Profiling Systems By mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Distributions of the distances travelled to offend by criminal samples have been consistently shown within the criminological literature to be characterized by distance decay, that is, as the distance from an offender's home or base increases the likelihood of offending decreases (Turner, 1969;Phillips, 1980;Rhodes & Conley, 1991;Rengert, Piquero &Jones, 1999, Canter andHammond, 2006;Rattner & Portnov, 2007;Emeno, 2008;Block & Bernasco, 2009). However, the relationship between distance travelled to offend and frequency of offences is non-linear and it remains unclear which of a variety of decay functions it follows.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Decay functions and criminal spatial processes: geographical offender profiling of volume crime

Hammond

Youngs

2011

Journal Invest Psychology

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Although it is now well established across diverse samples that the frequency of offending 'decays' as distance from the home/base increases, it remains unclear what form of decay function best characterises this relationship. Yet different forms of decay function, reflecting as they do different patterns and rates of decreasing overall offending likelihood as distance from the home/base increases, do imply rather different underlying psychological processes. As such, considerations of the particular function characterising distance decay may throw light on the appropriateness of theoretical explanations of offender spatial behaviour.The present study therefore examined the fit of logarithmic, negative exponential and quadratic decay functions to the distribution of the distances travelled to offend by a sample of 70 prolific burglars from the U.K. It is argued these functions are consistent with the operation of perceptual processes of magnitude estimation, friction or effort effects, and the influences of cost-benefits assessments respectively. The results suggest a closest fit to the logarithmic function, consistent with Stevens' perceptual processes of distortion in magnitude estimation, as the dominant factor in offending distance decay patterns, while not ruling out additional processes relating to the increased effort required in travelling greater distances to offend.As Geographical Profiling systems are built upon the distance decay function, the impact of utilising the different forms of function on the accuracy of geographic profiles was also assessed utilising the 'search cost' calculation. The results showed little impact of applying different decay functions. Thus, while the decay function does have important theoretical implications for understanding offender spatial behaviour, it is noted that the particular variant used does not significantly impact on the effectiveness of Geographical Profiling systems as they currently exist.3

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Section: Effectiveness Of Geographical Offender Profiling Systems By mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decay functions and criminal spatial processes: geographical offender profiling of volume crime

Hammond

Youngs

2011

Journal Invest Psychology

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“…Debate remains rife as to which of a range of different forms of function might most appropriately encapsulate crucial features of criminal spatial behaviour (Canter and Hammond, 2006;Emeno and Bennell, 2011;Hammond and Youngs, 2011;Levine, 2002;Paulsen, 2005;2006).…”

Section: Geographical Offender Profilingmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Efficacy of Ideographic Models for Geographical Offender Profiling

et al. 2012

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“…The distance decay used in the above formula describes how the distant demand of one sublocation on another sublocation decreases as a function of the travel time distance between these two sublocations. We used a negative, exponential function [90][91][92][93][94] defined as follows:…”

Section: Availability Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Accounting for the Boundary Problem at Subnational Level: The Supply–Demand Balance of Biomass Cooking Fuels in Kitui County, Kenya

Bär

Ehrensperger

2018

Resources

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Abstract:In sub-Saharan Africa, the high demand for wood-based cooking fuels calls for urgent policy action to steer the cooking energy sector towards more sustainability. While the subnational scale is growing in importance for policy planning, current energy assessments still only consider individual entities without taking into account resource flows. Ignoring flows of biomass cooking fuels in supply-demand assessments is a system boundary problem that can lead to misleading policy recommendations. In this paper, we tackle the boundary problem in subnational supply-demand assessments and provide a tool to support knowledge-based decision-making on the management of biomass cooking fuels in sub-Saharan Africa. Using Kitui County as a case study, we developed and tested an approach consisting of a supply model, local demand model, balance model, availability model, and adjusted balance model. The balance model only considers local fuel supplies and demand, whereas the adjusted balance model also considers external demand, which reduces the locally available supply of fuel. The results show that fuel demand and supply are spatially heterogeneous and vary between wood-based and non-woody fuels, and that the transport distance of fuels strongly affects local fuel availability and determines whether the supply-demand balance is positive or negative. We conclude that subnational energy policies should consider geographical distribution of supply and demand, aim to increase the fuel mix, consider external demand in supply-demand assessments, and differentiate between fuels for self-consumption and the market.

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The effectiveness of calibrated versus default distance decay functions for geographic profiling: a preliminary examination of crime type

Cited by 13 publications

References 26 publications

Decay functions and criminal spatial processes: geographical offender profiling of volume crime

Decay functions and criminal spatial processes: geographical offender profiling of volume crime

The Efficacy of Ideographic Models for Geographical Offender Profiling

Accounting for the Boundary Problem at Subnational Level: The Supply–Demand Balance of Biomass Cooking Fuels in Kitui County, Kenya

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