The Effects of Changing Weather on Public Health

Abstract

Key Words climate change, global warming, heat waves, waterborne disease, air pollution, vectorborne disease s Abstract Many diseases are influenced by weather conditions or display strong seasonality, suggestive of a possible climatic contribution. Projections of future climate change have, therefore, compelled health scientists to re-examine weather/disease relationships. There are three projected physical consequences of climate change: temperature rise, sea level rise, and extremes in the hydrologic cycle. This century, the Earth has warmed by about 0.5 degrees centigrade, and the mid-range estimates of future temperature change and sea level rise are 2.0 degrees centigrade and 49 centimeters, respectively, by the year 2100. Extreme weather variability associated with climate change may especially add an important new stress to developing nations that are already vulnerable as a result of environmental degradation, resource depletion, overpopulation, or location (e.g. low-lying coastal deltas). The regional impacts of climate change will vary widely depending on existing population vulnerability. Health outcomes of climate change can be grouped into those of: (a) direct physical consequences, e.g. heat mortality or drowning; (b) physical/chemical sequelae, e.g. atmospheric transport and formation of air pollutants; (c) physical/biological consequences, e.g. response of vector-and waterborne diseases, and food production; and (d) sociodemographic impacts, e.g. climate or environmentally induced migration or population dislocation. Better understanding of the linkages between climate variability as a determinant of disease will be important, among other key factors, in constructing predictive models to guide public health prevention.

Air pollution and emergency admissions for cardiorespiratory diseases in Lisbon (Portugal)

“…The nature and magnitude of the association between temperature and human health has been increasingly recognised and the physiological effects of hyperthermia are well known. 76,77 It should be mentioned that numerous methodological factors restrain the comparability and power of the various studies, including: (i) absence of measurement of additional atmospheric compounds with possible biological effect (e.g. benzene and sulphate), besides the traditional air pollutants; (ii) difficulty of comparing risks for particles of different aerodynamic diameter which do not have the same health impact, especially on the respiratory tract; (iii) extrapolation of measurements performed by fixed monitors which do not take into account the movement of persons nor the level of indoor air quality, (iv) assessment of daily average levels of air pollutants instead time-period peaks, which may produce more adverse effects; and (v) difficulty of evaluating the interaction of pollutants with confounding factors, such as viral infections or smoking.…”

The toxicology of climate change: Environmental contaminants in a warming world

“…Given the large segment of the population exposed to outdoor air pollutants, a relatively modest increase in mortality and morbidity estimated from current modeling projections could translate into a substantial number of individuals at risk (Patz et al, 2005;Zhang et al, 2006). Certain subpopulations, especially the elderly, infants and children, and individuals with pre-existing health conditions, such as chronic cardiopulmonary and immunological diseases, may be especially susceptible to these adverse interactions (Ebi et al, 2006;Oberdörster, 2001;Patz et al, 2000a;Pope, 2000). There continues to be uncertainty, however, including that the modeling is based usually on a single emissions scenario and other co-stressors may obscure the interactions between climate, air pollution, and human health.…”

“…The elderly, infants, children, and urban poor are expected to be most vulnerable to the rapidly changing climate (Confalonieri et al, 2007;Ebi et al, 2006;Patz et al, 2000aPatz et al, , 2005. Notable adverse consequences of climate change on human health include increased death and injury associated with more severe and frequent heat waves, extreme weather events, and enhanced vector-borne and allergic disease transmission.…”

“…As such, climate change is predicted to facilitate the reemergence or expansion of endemic vector-borne diseases or might promote the migration of these diseases to new regions. For example, cholera incidences in south Asia are linked to weather patterns (Patz et al, 2000a) and are predicted to increase with shifts in precipitation patterns (IPCC, 2007c). Likewise, malaria is predicted to migrate into higher latitudes and altitudes, particularly in Africa and South America, where it is endemic, although regions of Africa are also predicted to see declines due to high temperatures and desertification (IPCC, 2007b).…”

The influence of weather on local geographical patterns of police calls for service

“…Other meteorological conditions are also reported to exert influences on our behaviour, such as atmospheric pressure, sunshine, relative humidity, and wind speed. Similarly, a number of studies have focused on both the direct and indirect impacts of weather conditions on a range of health outcomes [see, for example, Sulman (1984) and Patz et al (2000) for reviews of such studies]. Specific examples include the impact of heat waves on mortality and emergency hospital admissions for different medical conditions and population age groups [for example, for London by Kovats et al (2004) and Johnson et al (2005)].…”