The effects of climate variability and change on grape suitability in Europe

Kenny, G. J.; Harrison, Paula A.

doi:10.1080/09571269208717931

Cited by 154 publications

(124 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…In the principal winegrape-growing regions of California, Oregon, and Washington, growing season temperatures have warmed by 0.9°C from 1948 to 2002, driven mostly by changes in minimum temperatures (26). In future climates, likely changes include: varietal suitability shifts in many regions (17); increased heat stress and irrigation pressure but decreased frost risk in Australia (27); northward migration of European wineproducing regions (28); and shifts in Australian wine production to southern and coastal areas (29).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme heat reduces and shifts United States premium wine production in the 21st century

White

Diffenbaugh

Jones

et al. 2006

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

327

240

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Premium wine production is limited to regions climatically conducive to growing grapes with balanced composition and varietal typicity. Three central climatic conditions are required: (i) adequate heat accumulation; (ii) low risk of severe frost damage; and (iii) the absence of extreme heat. Although wine production is possible in an extensive climatic range, the highest-quality wines require a delicate balance among these three conditions. Although historical and projected average temperature changes are known to influence global wine quality, the potential future response of wineproducing regions to spatially heterogeneous changes in extreme events is largely unknown. Here, by using a high-resolution regional climate model forced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios A2 greenhouse gas emission scenario, we estimate that potential premium winegrape production area in the conterminous United States could decline by up to 81% by the late 21st century. While increases in heat accumulation will shift wine production to warmer climate varieties and͞or lower-quality wines, and frost constraints will be reduced, increases in the frequency of extreme hot days (>35°C) in the growing season are projected to eliminate winegrape production in many areas of the United States. Furthermore, grape and wine production will likely be restricted to a narrow West Coast region and the Northwest and Northeast, areas currently facing challenges related to excess moisture. Our results not only imply large changes for the premium wine industry, but also highlight the importance of incorporating fine-scale processes and extreme events in climate-change impact studies.climate change ͉ enology ͉ grape ͉ viticulture ͉ winegrape A number of observations indicate that warming has occurred during the late 20th and early 21st centuries at the Earth's surface (1), in the troposphere (2-4), and in the oceans (5). The majority of this warming has likely been caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (6), and if such emissions continue unabated, global mean temperatures are likely to rise by 2-6°C over the next century (1). This mean global warming will likely manifest itself over a range of spatial and temporal scales, altering mean seasonal climate (e.g., ref. 7), interannual climate variability (e.g., ref. 8), and the frequency and magnitude of extreme events (e.g., refs. 9-11).Such climatic changes could have a wide variety of important impacts on sectors such as human health (12), biological invasions (13), species extinctions (14), and water (15) and energy (16) resources. Because the quality and production of cultivated crops are directly influenced by local climate variables, agricultural systems may be particularly susceptible to climate change. For at least five reasons, the cultivation of grapes for the production of premium wine provides an optimal case for assessing potential impacts of climate change. First, premium wines are produced conterminously with human habitation an...

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme heat reduces and shifts United States premium wine production in the 21st century

White

Diffenbaugh

Jones

et al. 2006

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

327

240

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“…vinecology | wildlife | ecosystem services V iticulture is famously sensitive to climate (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8) and changes in wine production have been used as a proxy to elucidate past climate change (9). Temperature and moisture regimes are among the primary elements of terroir (10,11), with growing season temperature being particularly important in delimiting regions suitable for growing wine grapes (Vitis vinifera).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change, wine, and conservation

Lee

Roehrdanz

Ikegami

et al. 2013

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

649

462

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Climate change is expected to impact ecosystems directly, such as through shifting climatic controls on species ranges, and indirectly, for example through changes in human land use that may result in habitat loss. Shifting patterns of agricultural production in response to climate change have received little attention as a potential impact pathway for ecosystems. Wine grape production provides a good test case for measuring indirect impacts mediated by changes in agriculture, because viticulture is sensitive to climate and is concentrated in Mediterranean climate regions that are global biodiversity hotspots. Here we demonstrate that, on a global scale, the impacts of climate change on viticultural suitability are substantial, leading to possible conservation conflicts in land use and freshwater ecosystems. Area suitable for viticulture decreases 25% to 73% in major wine producing regions by 2050 in the higher RCP 8.5 concentration pathway and 19% to 62% in the lower RCP 4.5. Climate change may cause establishment of vineyards at higher elevations that will increase impacts on upland ecosystems and may lead to conversion of natural vegetation as production shifts to higher latitudes in areas such as western North America. Attempts to maintain wine grape productivity and quality in the face of warming may be associated with increased water use for irrigation and to cool grapes through misting or sprinkling, creating potential for freshwater conservation impacts. Agricultural adaptation and conservation efforts are needed that anticipate these multiple possible indirect effects.

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“…Moreover, the augmentation of extreme weather conditions may result in changes in crop yields, increase in prices and changes in trade balances between countries (Lobell et al, 2008). Parry et al (2001) argue that developing countries are most vulnerable to climate change because of the dominant like grain maize and grapevine (Kenny and Harrison, 1992;Kenny et al, 1993).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change and Chances for the Cultivation of New Crops

Georgakopoulos

Travlos

Kakabouki

et al. 2016

Not Bot Horti Agrobo

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Climate change is one of the greatest environmental, economic and social challenges in the history of mankind and nowadays is considered as the biggest environmental problem of the world. Climate change has a significant global impact and therefore Greece has to deal with its effects as well. Agriculture has been unfavourably affected in recent years, as the current and anticipated conditions in many cases seem to be rather prohibitive for the prosperity of the cultivated crops. On the contrary, these new conditions have made it possible for new plant species previously cultivated only in subtropical regions, to thrive in Greece. Moreover, economic reasons would make it rather necessary for the agricultural industry to cultivate alternative crops, which are thoroughly analysed in the present study. Based on Heating Degree Days (HDD) Greece is divided into four climatic zones. The variations in the mean maximum, mean minimum and mean temperature in each climate zone as well as the rainfall over the last 50 years (from 1964 to 2013) are reviewed in this paper. The outcome of this research is that it is not feasible for the studied alternative crops to thrive in all climate zones or vice versa. However, some of them and particularly crops such as quinoa, maca, psyllium, chia, cassava and pecan can be cultivated in all climate zones. It has also to be noted that adequate water is necessary for almost all the examined crops in order to achieve optimal growth and yield and therefore irrigations are rather necessary for specific species and climate zones.

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The effects of climate variability and change on grape suitability in Europe

Cited by 154 publications

References 13 publications

Extreme heat reduces and shifts United States premium wine production in the 21st century

Extreme heat reduces and shifts United States premium wine production in the 21st century

Climate change, wine, and conservation

Climate Change and Chances for the Cultivation of New Crops

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