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© Copyright 2017 RAND CorporationR® is a registered trademark.iii Preface RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF) is engaged in a multiyear project-Weapon System Acquisition and Cost Analysis Umbrella Project-to conduct analyses of interest to the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Acquisition Integration, Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition (SAF/AQX) to improve weapon system acquisition outcomes and develop better cost-estimating tools for use by the acquisition community. Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAPs) are required to report programmatic information to Congress on an annual basis in the form of Selected Acquisition Reports (SARs). RAND PAF has developed and maintains a comprehensive database of program cost and schedule information obtained by analyzing and summarizing the contents of the SARs from the inception of each program through the latest out-of-cycle and annual SARs submitted as part of each year's President's Budget. This database supports ongoing analyses of interest to U.S. Air Force acquisition leadership.One part of PAF's ongoing SAR analyses is the creation of statistical models to assess the likelihood of future cost growth and schedule slip of a program early in its development. This document describes the technical approach and methodology of this research. It should be of interest to decisionmakers and analysts concerned with MDAP cost and schedule growth issues. The research was conducted within PAF's Resource Management Program.
SummaryAlthough the armed services and the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) have focused much attention over the past decades on improving Major Defense Acquisition Program (MDAP) cost and schedule estimates, they continue to routinely underestimate how much such MDAPs will end up costing and how lon...