Varying the timing of reproduction in response to local environmental conditions is a key factor influencing reproductive success. We used 19 yr (1991 to 2009) of data on breeding chronology and reproductive success of Adélie penguins Pygoscelis adeliae and gentoo penguins P. papua at King George Island, Antarctica to compare clutch initiation dates (CIDs), hatch rates, and crèche rates at population and individual levels. The CIDs of both species occurred earlier with warmer October temperatures, but gentoo penguins adjusted CIDs twice as much per °C of temperature as Adélie penguins. Gentoo penguins also exhibited lower variances in hatch and crèche rates than Adélie penguins, suggesting that greater ability to respond to ambient conditions can buffer reproductive success. Mixed-effects models revealed that individual-and yearspecific random effects on the overall population mean best accounted for observed variation in CIDs, with some individuals routinely breeding earlier than others. However, individual differences in the relative timing of breeding provided no advantage for long-term reproductive success. The results suggest that, among gentoo and Adélie penguins, plasticity in CIDs with respect to environmental conditions is primarily a population-level rather than an individual-level response. Energetic constraints of contrasting migratory and fasting behaviors likely contribute to the different abilities to respond to warming spring temperatures. Overall, larger responses of gentoo penguin CIDs to October temperature and lower variability in reproductive success, despite reduced reproductive success with delayed breeding, suggests that gentoo penguins are better equipped than Adélie penguins to adjust to rapid warming in the Antarctic Peninsula ecosystem.KEY WORDS: Phenology · Adélie · Gentoo · Climate change · Migrant
Resale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisherMar Ecol Prog Ser 454: 91-104, 2012 92 should exhibit higher and/or less variable reproductive success relative to those less able to respond to ambient conditions. In the present study, we compared the response in breeding chronology to changing environmental conditions in the Antarctic Peninsula region of 2 species of Pygoscelis penguins that have exhibited long-term divergent trends in abundance. We specifically investigated the relative importance of population-versus individual-level plasticity on reproductive success among Adélie penguins P. adeliae and gentoo penguins P. papua.The Antarctic Peninsula region is currently undergoing rapid environmental changes, including increased air and sea temperatures (Meredith & King 2005, Turner et al. 2005a, declines in the duration of winter sea ice (Stammerjohn et al. 2008), and increases in frequency and amount of precipitation (Turner et al. 2005b, Thomas et al. 2008. These environmental factors are important for penguins, as they can influence marine primary production (Schofield et al. 2010), food distribution (Loeb et al. 1997), and physical cond...