The empirical implications of piaget's concept of correlation

Abstract

An experiment was conducted to test the ability of Ss to make logical decisions on the basis of correlated and noncorrelated binary variables. Ss were asked to decide on hospitalization or nonhospitalization for a patient with a disease on the basis of past recovery rates of other patients. It was assumed that only Ss with a cognitive structure similar to that described by Inhelder and Piaget (1958) would behave logically in the experimental task. The findings suggested that such a structure was present in that the Ss were capable of making logical decisions on the basis of the data presented to them. From an analysis of the problem the point of view is presented that previous negative findings in the area may have been a function of methodology, rather than the lack of a cognitive structure as has been claimed.

A note on measurement of contingency between two binary variables in judgment tasks

“…These measures are examined, and the inappropriateness of some are noted. As well, it is argued that accurate judgments about related variables should not be used to infer that the judgments are based on the appropriate information.A number of studies in the psychological literature have been concerned with judgments of contingency or correlation between two binary variables (Allan & Jenkins, in press;Gray, 1976;Green, Jurd, & Seggie, 1979;Inhelder & Piaget, 1958;Seggie, 1975;Seggie & Endersby, 1972;Smedslund, 1963;. One purpose of the present note is to evaluate the various measures of contingency that have been used in these studies.…”

The judgment of covariation between binary variables: Some conditions that influence the process

“…This claim was made on the basis of research showing that "under some circumstances people do understand the concept of covariation and use information about instances appropriately to estimate covariations" (p. 282) (Alloy & Abramson, 1979;Inhelder & Piaget, 1958;Peterson, 1980;Ward & Jenkins, 1965). In addition to that work, Green, Jurd, and Seggie (1979), Seggie (1975), Seggie and Endersby (1972), and Seggie and Schofield (1987) also reported conditions under which subjects make highly appropriate judgments of covariation between binary variables.…”

“…It was this apparent paradox that provoked Seggie and Endersby (1972) into specifying the logical implications of Smedslund's conclusions. They pointed out that if subjects do not have a cognitive structure isomorphic with the concept of correlation, then they would be incapable of utilizing the data of the 2 X 2 table in an empirical problem, the solution to which is embedded in the relationship between the binary variables of the table.…”

“…Within the context of age and sex differences, subjects can use the binary relationships to make logical decisions. Although the decision making of subjects is less accurate when they are presented with data representing zero correlations (Green et al, 1979;Seggie, 1975;Seggie & Endersby, 1972), the Green et al study investigated the important consequences of the ceiling effect evident in the performance of subjects presented with correlated data. Green et al pointed out that the decision-making task asks the subjects to make a choice between the two values of one variable, a choice that may encourage the search for a one-way causal relationship (e.g., a particular treatment leading to a particular outcome).…”

“…Since Seggie and Endersby's (1972) study, the decisionmaking task has been presented to a variety of subjects: army recruits, personnel employees, young and mature adolescents. The original findings have been replicated.…”