The environmental effects of crop price increases: Nitrogen losses in the U.S. Corn Belt

Hendricks, Nathan P.; Sinnathamby, Sumathy; Douglas-Mankin, Kyle R.; Smith, Aaron; Sumner, Daniel A.; Earnhart, Dietrich

doi:10.1016/j.jeem.2014.09.002

Cited by 46 publications

(41 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…Given recent volatility in the commodity markets, with high prices for corn relative to soybean during much of the ethanol boom encouraging more continuous corn (Hendricks et al, 2014), and higher prices for soybean relative to corn encouraging more rotation today, understanding effects on a region-wide level can help inform both farmer and policy decisions. Data such as those presented in this study can help to reach this understanding in a much more precise and cost-effective way than traditional approaches can achieve on their own.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Continuous Corn and Soybean Yield Penalties across Hundreds of Thousands of Fields

2017

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Core Ideas Analysis of 748,374 yield records showed a 4.3% yield penalty for continuous corn. Corn yield penalties were more severe in areas with low moisture and low yields. Continuous soybean showed a 10.3% yield penalty, worse in low‐yielding years. Corn yield penalties grew with up to 3 yr of continuous cropping, but not more. Soybean penalties increased monotonically with number of years continuously cropped. The effects of crop rotations on yields have historically been assessed with field trials, but new datasets offer an opportunity to evaluate these effects using data from commercial farmers’ fields. Here we develop a unique dataset of 748,374 joint observations of field‐level yields, crop histories, and soil and weather conditions across the U.S. Midwest to empirically evaluate crop rotations. For rainfed fields, we found an average continuous corn (Zea mays L.) yield penalty (CCYP) of 4.3% and continuous soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] yield penalty (CSYP) of 10.3% during the 2007 to 2012 growing seasons. The CCYP is greater in locations with low moisture, while the CSYP shows the opposite pattern. Relatedly, irrigation decreases the CCYP but not the CSYP. Both penalties increased with the number of years a field had been continuously cropped, and while the CCYP leveled off after 3 yr in corn, the CSYP showed significant increases out to the (very rare) 5‐yr continuous soybean sequence. An analysis of weather, soil, and planting date interactions with the CCYP and CSYP suggests that timely planting, favorable soil‐climate, and warm early and late‐season minimum temperatures correlate with reductions in the CCYP, while dry conditions and less favorable soil‐climate correlate with reductions in the CSYP. The results of this study not only help refine estimates of rotation effects in commercial fields, but also shed light on the relationships between rotation effects and other factors, thereby offering insight into potential causal mechanisms.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Continuous Corn and Soybean Yield Penalties across Hundreds of Thousands of Fields

2017

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“…Clearly, the optimal fertilizer rate depends not just on technical factors but also on prices. If the price of grain rises or the price of fertilizer falls, the optimal fertilizer rate increases (and vice versa), even in the absence of any change in the technical relationship between fertilizer and yield (Hendricks et al 2014). Therefore, improving nitrogen use efficiency, if it is pursued by adjusting fertilizer rates, is not necessarily in the best interests of farmers.…”

Section: Economics Of Nitrogen As An Input To Productionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic perspectives on nitrogen in farming systems: managing trade-offs between production, risk and the environment

Pannell¹

2017

Soil Res.

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Economic insights are crucial for making sound decisions about farm-level management of nitrogen and also about regional or national policy such as for water pollution. In the present review, key insights are presented from a large and diverse literature on the economics of nitrogen in agriculture and the economics of the consequences of nitrogen fertilisation. Issues covered include (1) the economics of nitrogen as an input to production, (2) nitrogen and economic risk at the farm level, (3) the economics of nitrogen fixation by legumes, (4) the existence of flat payoff functions, which often allow wide flexibility in decisions about nitrogen fertiliser rates, (5) explanations for over-application of nitrogen fertilisers by some farmers, and (6) the economics of nitrogen pollution at both the farm level and the policy level. Economics helps to explain farmer behaviour and to design strategies and policies that are more beneficial and more likely to be adopted and successfully implemented.

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“…The standard assumption of no omitted variables holds as long as growing area is not affected by expected yield shocks and unobserved factors that affect growing area are unknown prior to planting. As a result, the pre-planting futures prices are exogenous to growing area (Hendricks et al, 2014). Our exogeneity assumption of expected price is also supported by findings of existing empirical literature.…”

Section: Empirical Strategysupporting

confidence: 69%

Three essays on agricultural supply analysis

Iqbal¹

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The environmental effects of crop price increases: Nitrogen losses in the U.S. Corn Belt

Cited by 46 publications

References 55 publications

Continuous Corn and Soybean Yield Penalties across Hundreds of Thousands of Fields

Continuous Corn and Soybean Yield Penalties across Hundreds of Thousands of Fields

Economic perspectives on nitrogen in farming systems: managing trade-offs between production, risk and the environment

Three essays on agricultural supply analysis

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