The epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in Libya during the ongoing-armed conflict

2021

Front. Public Health

Background: Since the Arab uprising in 2011, Libya, Syria and Yemen have gone through major internal armed conflicts. This resulted in large numbers of deaths, injuries, and population displacements, with collapse of the healthcare systems. Furthermore, the situation was complicated by the emergence of COVID-19 as a global pandemic, which made the populations of these countries struggle under unusual conditions to deal with both the pandemic and the ongoing wars. This study aimed to determine the impact of the armed conflicts on the epidemiology of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) within these war-torn countries and highlight the strategies needed to combat the spread of the pandemic and its consequences.Methods: Official and public data concerning the dynamics of the armed conflicts and the spread of SARS-COV-2 in Libya, Syria and Yemen were collected from all available sources, starting from the emergence of COVID-19 in each country until the end of December 2020. Datasets were analyzed by a set of statistical techniques and the weekly resolved data were used to probe the link between the intensity levels of the conflict and the prevalence of COVID-19.Results: The data indicated that there was an increase in the intensity of the violence at an early stage from March to August 2020, when it approximately doubled in the three countries, particularly in Libya. During that period, few cases of COVID-19 were reported, ranging from 5 to 53 cases/day. From September to December 2020, a significant decline in the intensity of the armed conflicts was accompanied by steep upsurges in the rate of COVID-19 cases, which reached up to 500 cases/day. The accumulative cases vary from one country to another during the armed conflict. The highest cumulative number of cases were reported in Libya, Syria and Yemen.Conclusions: Our analysis demonstrates that the armed conflict provided an opportunity for SARS-CoV-2 to spread. The early weeks of the pandemic coincided with the most intense period of the armed conflicts, and few cases were officially reported. This indicates undercounting and hidden spread during the early stage of the pandemic. The pandemic then spread dramatically as the armed conflict declined, reaching its greatest spread by December 2020. Full-blown transmission of the COVID-19 pandemic in these countries is expected. Therefore, urgent national and international strategies should be implemented to combat the pandemic and its consequences.

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

The Impact of Armed Conflict on the Epidemiological Situation of COVID-19 in Libya, Syria and Yemen

2021

Front. Public Health

“…Our data indicate that the armed-con ict has masked the actual status of the epidemic at an early stage. This is in concordance with previous data published by Daw et al, which showed that the ongoing-armed armed con ict in these volatile regions has in uenced the spread of the pandemic either by masking the actual prevalence in the armed controlling areas and accelerating the spread of the pandemic in the noncontrolled region ( 23).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

The impact of armed conflict on the epidemiological situation of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Libya, Syria, and Yemen

2021

Preprint

Self Cite

Background: Since the Arab uprising 2011, Libya, Syria, and Yemen have gone through a major armed conflict. This resulted in a high rate of mortality, injury, and population displacement with a collapse of the health care system. Furthermore, it was complicated by the emergence of, COVID-19 as a global pandemic which made the population of these countries strive under unusual conditions to tackle both the pandemic and the ongoing wars. The objectives of this study were to determine the impacts and influence of armed conflicts on the epidemiology of Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) within these war-torn countries and outline the needed strategies to combat the spread of the pandemic and its upcoming consequences. Methods: The official and public data regarding the dynamics of armed conflict and the spread, of SARS-COV-19 in Libya, Syria, and Yemen were collected from all available sources. Starting from the early emergence of the COVID-19 in each country until the end of December 2020. Datasets were analyzed through a set of statistical techniques and the weekly resolved data were used to probe the link between the intensity levels of the armed conflict and the spread of the pandemic.Results; Data indicated that there is an increase in the intensity of violence levels at an early stage from March to August reached up to two folds in the three countries particularly in Libya. In this violent period, few cases of COVID-19 were reported ranging from 5-53 cases/day. From September to December, a significant decline in the level of the armed conflict was accompanied by steep upsurges in the number of reported COVID-19 cases reached up to 500 cases/day. The highest accumulative cases of COVID-19 were reported in Libya, Syria, and Yemen respectively.Conclusions: Our analysis demonstrates that the armed conflict has provided an opportunity for SARS-COV-19 to spread. At the early weeks of the pandemic that coincided with high levels of the armed conflict few cases were officially reported indicating a vast undercount, which may suggest a hidden mitigating spread at an early stage. Then the pandemic increased immensely as the armed conflict decline to reach the highest by December. A full-blown transmission of the COVID-19 pandemic in these countries is expected. Therefore, urgent national and international strategies should be implemented to combat the pandemic and its upcoming consequences.

“…Though the study gives detailed information on the epidemiology of COVID-19 in Libya, there might be some uncertainties about how well the reported data represent reality because many asymptomatic or mild cases go undetected. Another limitation is that the study may not highlight the impact of the armed conflict, which has stopped only recently, on the spread of COVID-19 in Libya and the ability to trace and identify infections in some cities and towns (35)(36)(37)(38).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Epidemiological and Spatiotemporal Characteristics of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) in Libya

El-Bouzedi

Ahmed

2021

Front. Public Health

COVID-19 is a global pandemic that has affected all aspects of life. Understanding its geographical and epidemiological characteristics has become particularly important in controlling the spread of the pandemic. Such studies are lacking in North African countries, particularly in Libya, which has the second largest area of any country in Africa and the longest coast facing Europe. The objectives of this study are to determine the epidemiological parameters and spatiotemporal patterns of COVID-19 and outline strategies for containing the spread and consequences of the pandemic. This comprehensive study included all the confirmed cases of COVID-19 since its emergence in Libya on March 24, 2020 until July 31, 2020. The epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 were analyzed and the spatial dynamic trends were explored. Regional counts of weekly reported cases were used to characterize the spatial dynamics of COVID-19. A total of 3,695 confirmed cases of COVID-19 were recorded: 2,515 men (68.1%) and 1,180 women (31.9%), with a male-to-female ratio of 2.1:1. Ages ranged between 2 and 78 years. Older patients infected with COVID-19 were at a risk of higher disease severity and mortality. Broad geographic variability and spatiotemporal spread variation of the COVID-19 pandemic in Libya was observed, indicating a significant increase of COVID-19 spread starting in the middle of July 2020, particularly in the western and southern regions, although it was consistently reported in the central and eastern regions as well. Assessing the spatiotemporal dynamics of COVID-19 in the early stages of the epidemic is particularly important in understanding the pandemic spread. Such assessments are essential for designing effective prevention and control programs aimed at reducing the impact of the COVID- 19 pandemic, particularly in countries with limited resources.