The Exceptional 2018 European Water Seesaw Calls for Action on Adaptation

Toreti, Andrea; Belward, Alan; Domínguez, Ignácio Pérez; Naumann, Gustavo; Luterbacher, Jürg; Cronie, Ottmar; Seguini, Lorenzo; Manfron, Giacinto; López-Lozano, Raúl; Baruth, Bettina; Berg, M. van den; Dentener, Frank; Ceglar, Andrej; Chatzopoulos, Thomas; Zampieri, Matteo

doi:10.1029/2019ef001170

Cited by 147 publications

(134 citation statements)

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“…While years with El Niño events are typically associated with warmer temperatures at a global scale (Seneviratne et al, 2014), this effect is less relevant for the boreal summers in the NH AgPop region. Additionally, central Europe experienced concurrent dry and hot conditions from spring to summer in 2018 that were exceptional at least within the last 500 years (Toreti et al, 2019). A recent study shows that in 2018 a specific atmospheric pattern connected heat waves in North America, Western Europe, and the Caspian Sea region (Kornhuber et al, 2019).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A recent study shows that in 2018 a specific atmospheric pattern connected heat waves in North America, Western Europe, and the Caspian Sea region (Kornhuber et al, 2019). Additionally, central Europe experienced concurrent dry and hot conditions from spring to summer in 2018 that were exceptional at least within the last 500 years (Toreti et al, 2019). The dry conditions in central and Northern Europe possibly amplified extreme temperatures in these regions via land-atmosphere feedbacks.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Concurrent 2018 Hot Extremes Across Northern Hemisphere Due to Human‐Induced Climate Change

et al. 2019

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Extremely high temperatures pose an immediate threat to humans and ecosystems. In recent years, many regions on land and in the ocean experienced heat waves with devastating impacts that would have been highly unlikely without human‐induced climate change. Impacts are particularly severe when heat waves occur in regions with high exposure of people or crops. The recent 2018 spring‐to‐summer season was characterized by several major heat and dry extremes. On daily average between May and July 2018 about 22% of the populated and agricultural areas north of 30° latitude experienced concurrent hot temperature extremes. Events of this type were unprecedented prior to 2010, while similar conditions were experienced in the 2010 and 2012 boreal summers. Earth System Model simulations of present‐day climate, that is, at around +1 °C global warming, also display an increase of concurrent heat extremes. Based on Earth System Model simulations, we show that it is virtually certain (using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change calibrated uncertainty language) that the 2018 north hemispheric concurrent heat events would not have occurred without human‐induced climate change. Our results further reveal that the average high‐exposure area projected to experience concurrent warm and hot spells in the Northern Hemisphere increases by about 16% per additional +1 °C of global warming. A strong reduction in fossil fuel emissions is paramount to reduce the risks of unprecedented global‐scale heat wave impacts.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Concurrent 2018 Hot Extremes Across Northern Hemisphere Due to Human‐Induced Climate Change

et al. 2019

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“…While changing climate is likely codetermining the European land use patterns, we emphasize that climate change is acting on a background of socioeconomic and political factors that have substantially contributed to changes in crop harvested areas in Europe during the last 30 years. Nevertheless, the observed increase in intensity and frequency of climatic extremes has already exposed the need for effective policy guidance in the presence of agro-climate zone migration in order to improve resilience of cropping systems to future climate (Spinoni et al, 2018;Toreti, Belward, et al, 2019). During this time, western Europe has benefited from the funding mechanisms under EU's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), although the extent to which CAP has triggered or prevented land use change is not well established.…”

Section: Observed Shifts In European Agro-climate Zonesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…During this time, western Europe has benefited from the funding mechanisms under EU's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), although the extent to which CAP has triggered or prevented land use change is not well established. Nevertheless, the observed increase in intensity and frequency of climatic extremes has already exposed the need for effective policy guidance in the presence of agro-climate zone migration in order to improve resilience of cropping systems to future climate (Spinoni et al, 2018;Toreti, Belward, et al, 2019).…”

Section: 1029/2019ef001178mentioning

confidence: 99%

Observed Northward Migration of Agro‐Climate Zones in Europe Will Further Accelerate Under Climate Change

et al. 2019

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This study focuses on the northward shift of homogeneous agro-climate zones in Europe analyzed for the observed past and projected climate conditions for the next decades. Statistical cluster analysis is used to derive eight main agro-climatic zones driven by two agro-meteorological indicators, namely, active temperature sum and thermal growing season length. The northward shift of homogeneous agro-climate zones and the corresponding change of crop growth suitability are analyzed together with the change of exposure of crops to temperature-related climate extremes during the growing season. Gradual warming over Europe has contributed to a lengthening of the growing season and an increased active temperature accumulation, accompanied by more frequent occurrence of warm extreme climate events. Using a set of five high-resolution regional climate scenarios, we calculate that a major part of Europe will be affected by further northward climate zone migration. In the next decades, the migration of agro-climatic zones in Eastern Europe may reach twice the velocity observed during the period 1975-2016. Several regions of the Mediterranean may lose suitability to grow specific crops in favor of northern European regions. This indicator-based assessment suggests that the potential advantages of the lengthening of the thermal growing season in northern and eastern Europe are often outbalanced by the risk of late frost and increased risk of early spring and summer heat waves.

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“…Satellite images reveal a rapid shift of vegetation color from green to brown across central and northern Europe during the summer of 2018 (Liberto, ). The biomass accumulation from satellite observations has been found to reduce 15–25% even exceeding 25% locally (Toreti et al, ), implying strong impacts of the heatwave on the local ecosystem. Most of Europe was affected by this heatwave, but the effects were strongest in central and northern Europe, including Germany, Benelux, Italy, Spain, Sweden, and Finland (Vogel et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Similarities and Differences in the Mechanisms Causing the European Summer Heatwaves in 2003, 2010, and 2018

et al. 2020

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The mechanisms causing European heatwaves in recent years, particularly their differences among several heatwaves, are poorly understood. Here atmospheric circulation anomalies and soil moisture-temperature coupling during the summer 2018 heatwave are comprehensively examined and compared with the 2003 and 2010 heatwaves using ERA5 reanalysis, model simulations, and eddy covariance flux measurements. We show that the 2018 heatwave successively affected northern and central Europe, and the peak temperature in Finland and northwest Russia broke historical records of the past 40 years. Although three heatwaves were all initially triggered by atmospheric circulation anomalies, the strong moisture-temperature coupling were found to further strengthen the 2003 and 2010 heatwaves. This coupling was also strong in central Europe during 2018 heatwave, but was weak in the northern European center of the heatwaves. The high temperature in 2018 was mainly due to increases in the amount of net surface radiation caused by the clear skies associated with reduced precipitation. Furthermore, we also find that land cover plays a critical role in determining the occurrence and strength of soil moisture-temperature coupling. Cropland/grassland depletes soil moisture more readily than forests, thereby triggering a more rapid release of sensible fluxes as observed during 2018 heatwave. Plain Language SummaryIn summer 2018, Europe was attacked by strong heatwave. This heatwave successively affected northern and central Europe, and temperature in Finland and northwest Russia broke historical records. Similar with heatwaves happened in 2003 and 2010, the 2018 heatwave was triggered by atmospheric circulation anomalies. However, different from the strong soil moisture-temperature coupling during 2003 and 2010 heatwaves, this coupling was relative weak in northern Europe during 2018 heatwave because of the relatively small soil moisture deficits.

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The Exceptional 2018 European Water Seesaw Calls for Action on Adaptation

Cited by 147 publications

References 50 publications

Concurrent 2018 Hot Extremes Across Northern Hemisphere Due to Human‐Induced Climate Change

Concurrent 2018 Hot Extremes Across Northern Hemisphere Due to Human‐Induced Climate Change

Observed Northward Migration of Agro‐Climate Zones in Europe Will Further Accelerate Under Climate Change

Similarities and Differences in the Mechanisms Causing the European Summer Heatwaves in 2003, 2010, and 2018

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