The Fall in Men's Return to Marriage: Declining Productivity Effects or Changing Selection?

Abstract

Historically, one of the most robust findings from human capital wage equations has been that married men earn more than men who never marry. However, the earnings premium paid to married compared with never-married men declined by more than 40 percent during the 1980s. Data from the National Longitudinal Surveys (young men and youth cohorts) are used to explore two competing explanations for this decline: changes in the selection of high-wage men into marriage and changes in the productivity effects of marriage due to declining specialization within households. The results suggest that the drop in the marriage wage premium was due largely to a decline in the productivity effects associated with marriage. Instrumental variables estimation suggests that these declining productivity effects can be explained by a reduction in the average degree of specialization across households coupled with an increase in the wage penalty associated with wives' labor market hours.

Has the reciprocal relationship between employment and marriage changed for men? An analysis of the life histories of men born in the Netherlands between 1930 and 1970

“…For the effect of marriage, the evidence is more consistent, although here too it comes primarily from the USA. Both Gray (1997) and Blackburn and Korenman (1994) find that the earnings advantage of married men compared with that of unmarried men has declined over time, consistent with the general expectation.…”

“…First, there exists a small branch of*/mostly economic */literature that focuses on the effects of marriage on men's economic position. Using American panel data, studies in this area generally show that there is an economic advantage to being married: when men's fortunes over time are followed, a significant increase in wages appears to occur after marriage (Korenman and Neumark 1991;Blackburn and Korenman 1994;Gray 1997). Second, there are demographic studies that examine how men's economic resources affect entry into marriage and cohabitation.…”

“…First, the historical and cross-national base of the evidence is broadened. Earlier trend studies are limited to comparisons of American men in two (often closely spaced) birth cohorts (Blackburn and Korenman 1994;Gray 1997;Sweeney 2002;Sassler and Goldscheider 2004). This paper, on the other hand, compares men born in a European country in the period from the 1930s to the late 1960s, so that we look at marriage and employment behaviour over the whole period since the Second World War.…”

Job turnover, wage rates, and marital stability: How are they related?

“…Following white men aged 19 to 29 in 1970 to 29 to 39 in 1980, Cornwell and Rupert (1997) estimated a marriage effect of about 5-7 percent on wages after controlling for observed characteristics and for fixed unobserved individual differences. Gray (1996) conducted a study examining two cohorts of 24-31 year-old white men using the same model. His results indicated that marriage gains fell sharply over time, largely due to the declining specialization of partners.…”

“…One consequence of this instability is a high and rising rate of single parenthood. Between 1960 and1996, the share of children not living with two parents more than tripled from 10 to over 30 percent. As of 1999, only about 60 percent of children lived with both biological and/or adoptive parents (Lerman 2001).…”