The fastest growing initial error in prediction of the Kuroshio Extension state transition processes and its growth

Wang, Qiang; Mu, Mu; Pierini, Stefano

doi:10.1007/s00382-019-05097-1

Cited by 5 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…This is consistent with Wang et al. (2020) who suggested that the US is more difficult to predict than the SU because of the stronger nonlinearity of the US processes.…”

Section: Energetics Mechanisms Of Transitionssupporting

confidence: 92%

“…Considering that 𝐴𝐴 −𝑈𝑈 ′ ∇ ⋅ EKE is the nonlinear component, its stronger effect indicates that nonlinearity is crucial and unneglectable for the US transitions. This is consistent with Wang et al (2020) who suggested that the US is more difficult to predict than the SU because of the stronger nonlinearity of the US processes. Although ADV migrates EKE into KE downstream, no EKE enhancement occurs there (Figures 14b and 14d), indicating that downstream is the key region of EKE dissipation.…”

Section: The Ussupporting

confidence: 91%

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Local Energetics Mechanism for the Short‐Term Shift Between Kuroshio Extension Bimodality

Zhang

Wang

et al. 2022

JGR Oceans

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This study investigates the short‐term transition process between the Kuroshio Extension (KE) stable and unstable states (bimodality) based on eddy energetics analysis. The local dynamic mechanisms modulating the KE transitions are revealed by exploring the eddy kinetic energy (EKE) variability. During the stable‐to‐unstable transitions (low‐to‐high EKE level; SU), baroclinic instability is the major source of EKE growth. As the negative sea surface height anomaly (SSHa) signal propagates westward near the KE domain, the KE jet downstream (150°E–155°E) slows down at first but its upstream (140°E–145°E) remains fast. The great upstream vertical shear is conducive to the strong regional baroclinic instability. The difference in velocity between the KE upstream and downstream leads to the positive velocity anomaly and the strengthening of vertical velocity shears in the midstream (145°E–150°E). Hence, the baroclinic instability in the KE upstream and midstream facilitates the growth of EKE, thereby inducing the KE path to transform from a stable into an unstable state. During the unstable‐to‐stable transitions (high‐to‐low EKE level; US), the combination of advection and eddy wind work plays a key role in reducing EKE. With the positive SSHa signal arriving at the south of the KE axis, the KE jet speeds up. In this situation, more EKE is advected, especially from the KE midstream, into the downstream where wind dissipation takes effect. When most eddies are consumed, the KE path becomes more stable.

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“…This is consistent with Wang et al. (2020) who suggested that the US is more difficult to predict than the SU because of the stronger nonlinearity of the US processes.…”

Section: Energetics Mechanisms Of Transitionssupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: The Ussupporting

confidence: 91%

Local Energetics Mechanism for the Short‐Term Shift Between Kuroshio Extension Bimodality

Zhang

Wang

et al. 2022

JGR Oceans

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“…The LSV method searches along the linear evolution of perturbations, while the CNOP method considers the nonlinear dynamic features. Due to the nonlinearity of the atmosphere and ocean, the CNOP method has been widely applied to study the predictability of various high-impact events, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (Yang et al, 2020), the Madden-Julian Oscillation (Wei et al, 2019), and the Kuroshio Extension bimodality (Geng et al, 2020;Wang, Mu, & Pierini, 2020). In the present study, taking into account the high nonlinearity of the ACC (Rintoul, 2018), we employ the CNOP approach to explore the OPR that triggers the sudden shift in the ACC transport based on Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS).…”

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confidence: 99%

Optimal Precursors Triggering Sudden Shifts in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current Transport Through Drake Passage

Zhou

Wang

et al. 2021

JGR Oceans

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As the dominant circulation pattern in the Southern Ocean, the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), characterized by high-speed and deep-reaching flows, is the longest wind-driven current (∼25,000 km) in the global ocean. The unblocked Drake Passage (DP) and prevailing westerlies allow the ACC to supply large amounts of salt, heat, carbon, and other biochemical components among the major ocean basins, making it a critical part of the global coupled ocean-atmosphere system (Rintoul & Naveira Garabato, 2013). Multiple narrow jets, circumpolar fronts, and energetic eddies (e.g., Donohue et al., 2016;Nowlin & Klinck, 1986;Orsi et al., 1995) are observed in the wide cross-section of the ACC, leading to multiscale variability on intraseasonal to decadal time scales and low predictability of its transport (

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Recent Advances in China on the Predictability of Weather and Climate

Duan

Yang

et al. 2023

Adv. Atmos. Sci.

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The fastest growing initial error in prediction of the Kuroshio Extension state transition processes and its growth

Cited by 5 publications

References 43 publications

Local Energetics Mechanism for the Short‐Term Shift Between Kuroshio Extension Bimodality

Local Energetics Mechanism for the Short‐Term Shift Between Kuroshio Extension Bimodality

Optimal Precursors Triggering Sudden Shifts in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current Transport Through Drake Passage

Recent Advances in China on the Predictability of Weather and Climate

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