The feasibility of implementing an ecological network in The Netherlands under conditions of global change

Abstract

Context Both global change and policy reform will affect the implementation of the National Ecological Network (NEN) in the Netherlands. Global change refers to a combination of changing groundwater tables arising from climate change and improved economic prospects for farming. Policy reform refers to the abolition of an intermediary organization that organizes land trades with the support of a national land bank.Objective In this paper we evaluate the effects of these factors on future land acquisition for the NEN. Methods We applied an agent-based model of the land market based on sales and purchases between farmers and nature-conservation organizations (establishing the NEN) within a case study area. Results Our results demonstrate that future land acquisitions for the NEN are constrained by strong competition for land from farmers due to improved economic prospects for farming. Effects of climate change are that fewer parcels will be sold from farmers to nature-conservation organizations in a dry scenario as compared to a wet scenario. An important constraint for land acquisitions is the low willingness to pay (WTP) for land by nature-conservation organizations. We demonstrate that higher WTP increases land purchases considerably. However, the spatial pattern of land acquisition is fragmented, which may undermine its effectiveness from a restoration perspective. Conclusions The combination of these processes leads to land acquisitions for the NEN that do not meet the initially-stated policy objectives by far. In addition, the abolition of a land-trade organization supported by a land bank leads to more fragmented pattern of nature reserves.

A numerical method to account for distance in a farmer’s willingness to pay for land

“…Then, to consolidate nature areas, the province tries to trade these parcels with farmers for other parcels that are contiguous with the existing nature reserves. This process, however, appears to be ineffective, as farmers are often not interested in the parcels that are offered in exchange (Bakker et al, 2015). The method presented here allows the province to purchase and offer land more effectively.…”

“…This exchange may take the form of a lease, but the most common form is through land sale. Drivers of land exchange can be changes in agricultural prices, allowing farmers of profitable crops to expand at the expense of those growing less profitable crops; demographic change, whereby young farmers buy land from retiring farmers; or the implementation of voluntary land consolidation schemes, aimed at creating more efficient farm layouts or the connection and enlargement of nature reserves (Bakker et al, 2015).…”

Is green infrastructure an effective climate adaptation strategy for conserving biodiversity? A case study with the great crested newt

“…Nevertheless, it needs to be assessed to what degree this ecological perspective aligns with other sectoral perspectives such as from the agricultural sector (see e.g. Bakker et al 2015). Moreover, it is important to assess the relative effectiveness of these spatial adaptation options to other adaptation options.…”

Model explorations of ecological network performance under conditions of global change

“…Several contributions show how top-downimposed schemes often run afoul of local land owners behaving in ways that do not comply with the goals of policy makers. Bakker et al (2015), for example, show that the establishment of stepping stones and enlargement of habitats is strongly hindered by farmers that hold on to the agricultural function of the land, of which they are generally the legal owners. Kros et al (2015) demonstrate that at least in the Netherlands livestock farmers will probably expand at the expense of arable farmers, leading to an increase in nitrate emissions, which is at odds with the policy ambitions for reconstruction of mesotrophic habitats.…”

“…Two papers featured in this special issue deal with these challenges. Bakker et al (2015) simulated the land exchange between farmers and nature organizations as driven by the Dutch ecological network program, therewith being one of the very few ABM approaches able to simulate categorical land-use change as the result of land exchange. Gimona et al (2015) extrapolated ABM-derived land-use mechanisms to a much larger area than for which the ABM was run, so that principles of autonomously operating land users could be applied to scales at which longterm migration of species becomes manifest.…”