The Final Frontier: China, Taiwan, and the United States in Strategic Competition for Central America

Abstract

China's rise as a global power corresponded with a diminution of Taiwanese diplomacy, which has left Central America as the last region to host a continuous bloc of countries that recognize the ROC. In this article, we argue that China's success in gaining diplomatic recognition from Taiwan's former allies has largely resulted from China's economic policy, specifically its promises of large-scale infrastructure projects and the integration of Central American economies with Chinese markets. However, there are limits to how far China has advanced in gaining full recognition from the region. The competing political and economic interests of China, Taiwan, the United States, and the Central American countries themselves, continue to influence patterns of diplomatic switching. More specifically, we argue that the threat of punitive measures from the United States combined with a turn in Taiwanese diplomacy toward assistance efforts to combat Covid-19 may deter future switching in the short to medium-term. Our analysis offers case studies of four Central American countries (Costa Rica, Panama, El Salvador and Nicaragua) to illustrate the multi-year processes by which China's economic strategy leads to diplomatic switching and examine the paths ahead for the remaining holdouts facing the prospect of economic and political penalties by the United States.

The great powers in Central America: US response to Chinese activities in the region

“…Furthermore, in 2018, when El Salvador decided not to recognize Taiwan any longer and offered diplomatic recognition of China, the US Republican Senator Marco Rubio threatened the Guatemalan government that the United States would withhold development aid if Guatemala followed suit (Portada et al, 2020, p. 568). Rubio's statement could be considered a threat to use hard power diplomatic tools to exclude China by preserving Guatemala–Taiwan relations.…”

“…24–25) Kennan‐style paper released on China, titled The Elements of the China Challenge . Today, China appears to be paving its way into the region, and some scholars argue that Central America represents the final frontier in its strategic competition with the United States (Portada et al, 2020).…”

SDG’s Quality Education Approach: Comparative Analysis of Natural Sciences Curriculum Guidelines between Taiwan and Colombia

“…Thus, at least two comparative questions could be posed: Should Colombia and Taiwan be considered two marketization processes of education policies [48]? What are the main differences between a marketization process through a national education policy [49] and another policy based on educational services offered in a regulated space by the State and additional corporative agreements [50]?…”

Situating Petrostate Guyana in the Rise of China Discourse

“…Enforcement of the One China Policy has been a major component of Beijing's objectives in Latin America and the Caribbean (McElroy & Bai, 2008). Recent interrogations of Taiwan's diplomatic relations in the region indicate that Taipei is more and more reliant on the United States to patronize and/or coerce its dwindling regional partners to remain onside (Portada et al, 2020). The efforts by the Trump administration to implement sanctions against states who switch recognition to Beijing came after Taipei's loss of recognition by Panama in 2017, the Dominican Republic in 2018, and El Salvador in 2019.…”

“…The efforts by the Trump administration to implement sanctions against states who switch recognition to Beijing came after Taipei's loss of recognition by Panama in 2017, the Dominican Republic in 2018, and El Salvador in 2019. Although these measures have yet to be tested, Taiwan's responsiveness to its remaining bilateral partners during the pandemic has temporarily halted the trending of recognition towards China (Portada et al, 2020). This may not, however, be enough for Taiwan to remain competitive in a head-to-head contest of economic statecraft with China, given the limitations of American support that was displayed during the recent Guyana-Taiwan incident.…”