The first results of the pilot project on complex diagnosing earthquake precursors on Sakhalin

Пулинец, С. А.; Romanov, A. S.; Urlichich, Yuri M.; Doda, L.N.; Ouzounov, Dimitar

doi:10.1134/s0016793209010162

Cited by 13 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 9 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Based on the classification of earthquakes by Pulinets et al [2009], the 25 April 2015 Nepal earthquake qualifies as a major earthquake. In this report, we attempted to document precursor signatures of earthquake occurrence employing established electromagnetic observation methods utilizing subionospherically propagating VLF signals recorded at Allahabad, India in close proximity to the EQ epicenter (~360 km) region.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The 25 April 2015 Nepal Earthquake: Investigation of precursor in VLF subionospheric signal

Maurya

Venkatesham²,

Tiwari³

et al. 2016

JGR Space Physics

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We present a critical analysis of the observations and interpretation of VLF subionospheric measurements related to the main Nepal Gorkha earthquake which occurred on 25 April 2015 (Mw7.8) and its major aftershock on 12 May 2015 (Mw7.3). The VLF narrowband signal used is from North West Cape (NWC) (19.8 kHz) VLF transmitter located in Australia and recorded at Allahabad (latitude 25.41°N, longitude 81.93°E). Allahabad is located very close (~360 km) to these earthquake epicenters. Two widely used analysis, viz., (1) terminator time and (2) nighttime fluctuation techniques, are applied to extract seismic related effects in the NWC narrowband VLF data. The terminator time analysis yields statistically significant shifts of ~45 and ~26 min, respectively, in evening terminator time in the NWC VLF amplitude signal, 1 day before both the earthquakes. The nighttime fluctuation method shows a consistent, statistically significant, increase in three parameters 1 day before the earthquake. The observed terminator time and nighttime fluctuation shifts were associated with these earthquakes only after scrutinizing possible contributions from other potential sources such as solar activity; other earthquakes on the signal path; and meteorological disturbances such as lightning activity, wind speed, and temperature along the transmitter‐receiver great circle path. The VLF subionospheric signal analysis results unambiguously point toward the presence of seismically excited atmospheric gravity waves during these major earthquakes and their important role in providing the coupling between the seismic source region and overlying ionosphere.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The 25 April 2015 Nepal Earthquake: Investigation of precursor in VLF subionospheric signal

Maurya

Venkatesham²,

Tiwari³

et al. 2016

JGR Space Physics

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The effectiveness of the technologies of ionosphere monitoring in ionospheric precursors detection was demonstrated in many researches worldwide. Among them we should mention the vertical ionospheric sounding by ground-based ionosondes (Pulinets et al, 2004b;Liu et al, 2006), by vertical topside sounding from satellites , by GNSS TEC monitoring (Liu et al, 2004;, by applying GNSS GIM technique (Liu et al, 2009;Pulinets et al, 2010), by in-situ satellite measurements of the local ionospheric plasma parameters (Parrot and Li, 2018), by low orbit ionospheric tomography (Pulinets et al, 2009;Hirooka et al, 2011), by GNSS occultation technique (Chang et al, 2015), subionospheric VLF waves propagation anomalies (Rozhnoi et al, 2009), oblique ground-based ionospheric sounding (Blaunstein and Hayakawa, 2009), and probably some exotic techniques more. The problem of this diversity is in fact that majority of scientists are working in their own domain and do not imply other techniques.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ionosphere Sounding for Pre-seismic Anomalies Identification (INSPIRE): Results of the Project and Perspectives for the Short-Term Earthquake Forecast

Пулинец¹,

Krankowski²,

Hernández‐Pajares³

et al. 2021

Front. Earth Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The INSPIRE project was dedicated to the study of physical processes and their effects in ionosphere which could be determined as earthquake precursors together with detailed description of the methodology of ionospheric pre-seismic anomalies definition. It was initiated by ESA and carried out by an international consortium. The full set of key parameters of the ionospheric plasma was selected based on the retrospective analysis of the ground-based and satellite measurements of pre-seismic anomalies. Using this classification the multi-instrumental database of worldwide relevant ionospheric measurements (ionosonde and GNSS networks, LEO-satellites with in situ probes including DEMETER and FORMOSAT/COSMIC ROC missions) was developed for the time intervals related to selected test cases. As statistical processing shows, the main ionospheric precursors appear approximately 5 days before the earthquake within the time interval of 30 days before and 15 days after an earthquake event. The physical mechanisms of the ionospheric pre-seismic anomalies generation from ground to the ionosphere altitudes were formulated within framework of the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model. The processes of precursor’s development were analyzed starting from the crustal movements, radon emission and air ionization, thermal and atmospheric anomalies, electric field and electromagnetic emissions generation, variations of the ionospheric plasma parameters, in particular vertical TEC and vertical profiles of the electron concentration. The assessment of the LAIC model performance with definition of performance criteria for earthquake forecasting probability has been done in statistical and numerical simulation domains of the Global Electric Circuit. The numerical simulations of the earthquake preparation process as an open complex system from start of the final stage of earthquake preparation up to the final point–main shock confirms that in the temporal domain the ionospheric precursors are one of the most late in the sequence of precursors. The general algorithm for the identification of the ionospheric precursors was formalized which also takes into account the external Space Weather factors able to generate the false alarms. The importance of the special stable pattern called the “precursor mask” was highlighted which is based on self-similarity of pre-seismic ionospheric variations. The role of expert decision in pre-seismic anomalies interpretation for generation of seismic warning is important as well. The algorithm performance of the LAIC seismo-ionospheric effect detection module has been demonstrated using the L’Aquila 2009 earthquake as a case study. The results of INSPIRE project have demonstrated that the ionospheric anomalies registered before the strong earthquakes could be used as reliable precursors. The detailed classification of the pre-seismic anomalies was presented in different regions of the ionosphere and signatures of the pre-seismic anomalies as detected by ground and satellite based instruments were described what clarified methodology of the precursor’s identification from ionospheric multi-instrumental measurements. Configuration for the dedicated multi-observation experiment and satellite payload was proposed for the future implementation of the INSPIRE project results. In this regard the multi-instrument set can be divided into two groups: space equipment and ground-based support, which could be used for real-time monitoring. Together with scientific and technical tasks the set of political, logistic and administrative problems (including certification of approaches by seismological community, juridical procedures by the governmental authorities) should be resolved for the real earthquake forecast effectuation.

show abstract

“…Transient electric currents that flow in the Earth's crust with low-frequency electromagnetic emissions (Freund et al 2006) can influence to geomagnetic reaction. This lithospheric reaction causes to several atmospheric anomalies such as air ionization, abnormal cloud hydration, greenhouse condition and latent heat release (Pulinets et al 2009;Pulinets and Ouzounov 2011;Mansouri Daneshvar et al 2014a), which influence on the anomalous SLHF and rainfall event. Anomalous fluxes of latent heat release are due to air ionization and water vapor condensation on ions (Pulinets 2011).…”

Section: Temporal Data and Time Seriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Atmospheric blocking anomalies as the synoptic precursors prior to the induced earthquakes: a new climatic conceptual model

Daneshvar

Tavousi

Khosravi

2014

Int. J. Environ. Sci. Technol.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Blocking as an interruption of the climatological storm tracks means an extreme disturbance in the synoptic scale of atmospheric circulation. In this study, we aimed to describe the main role of atmospheric blocking on the earthquake prediction in the southern Iran. We gathered the subjective evidences of a block generation during April 5-9, 2013, which was clearly identified by anomalous data of geopotential height, air temperature, vertical velocity, rainfall rate and latent heat flux. Analysis of geopotential heights at the 500 and 300 hPa levels revealed that there was a dipole split-flow block with associated of a remarkable low-pressure anomaly (-76 m), which has established over southern Iran during April 5-9, 2013. This low pressure into three temporal sequences has influenced three epicenters of upcoming earthquake swarms in south parts of Iran during April and May 2013. Hence, we detected an atmosphericlithospheric cycle as a climatic conceptual model that describes the chain of the blocking-associated rainfall, preceding rainfall-triggered seismic stress, cyclogenesis, thunderstorm and subsequent stress-induced seismicity. We claimed that the blocking-associated anomalies together with the persistence of low pressure could be the earthquake precursors within 3-33 days before the main seismic shocks in Iran.

show abstract

The first results of the pilot project on complex diagnosing earthquake precursors on Sakhalin

Cited by 13 publications

References 9 publications

The 25 April 2015 Nepal Earthquake: Investigation of precursor in VLF subionospheric signal

The 25 April 2015 Nepal Earthquake: Investigation of precursor in VLF subionospheric signal

Ionosphere Sounding for Pre-seismic Anomalies Identification (INSPIRE): Results of the Project and Perspectives for the Short-Term Earthquake Forecast

Atmospheric blocking anomalies as the synoptic precursors prior to the induced earthquakes: a new climatic conceptual model

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About