The ‘fit’ between forward-looking activities and the innovation policy governance sub-system: A framework to explore potential impacts

Abstract

Forward-looking activities (FLAs) can influence innovation systems in various ways to a significant extent. This paper focuses on changes induced by FLAs in the innovation policy governance sub-systems (IPGSs) of the national innovation system. Our knowledge is surprisingly limited even on this subset of FLA impacts, despite several decades of practice and non-negligible analytical efforts. We identify key features of FLAs and IPGSs and explore hypotheses on the likely 'fit' between different types of FLAs and various IPGSs. Countries selected to illustrate the relevance of our analytical framework include Germany, Greece, and Hungary. Our intention is contribute to a more refined theory building concerning the role and Ebben a tanulmányban a NIR egyik fontos alrendszerére, az innovációpolitika irányítási rendszerére (IPIR) gyakorolt lehetséges hatásokat vizsgáljuk, mivel még e viszonylag szűk területről is meglehetősen keveset tudunk. Különböző FLA-módszerek terjedtek el az egyes országokban, és az IPIR is sokféle lehet. Ezért először az FLA-módszerek és az IPIR fontos jellemzőit emeljük ki, majd egyes FLA-módszerek és eltérő IPIR-ek illeszkedésére vonatkozó hipotéziseket vizsgálunk meg. Három nemzeti előretekintési programot -a görögöt, a magyart és a németet -részletesebben is elemzünk, ezeken keresztül mutatjuk be a javasolt elemzési keret érvényességét. Ez az elemzési keret elméleti és gyakorlati célokat is szolgálhat. Egyrészt hozzájárulhat ahhoz, hogy pontosabb, megalapozottabb elméletet alkossunk az FLA-módszerek szerepéről és várható hatásairól. Másrészt segítheti a megfelelő FLA-módszerek kiválasztását a lehetséges fejlődési folyamatok feltárására és befolyásolására irányuló tevékenységek tervezése során, illetve az ilyen tevékenységek hatásainak utólagos értékelését, s ezzel a hatásosabb szakpolitikai intézkedések kidolgozását.

FTA and Innovation Systems

“…Havas and Weber (Havas & Weber 2017) start from the perspective that FLAs have been available to science, technology and innovation policies for several decades, but that knowledge of impact is markedly limited. They seek to address this deficit by analysing the fit between different types of FLAs and 'innovation policy governance sub-systems' which contribute to identifying and prioritising policy needs and problems; the better the fit, the greater the likely impact.…”

Deciding for tomorrow, today : what makes governmental decisions about water infrastructure forward looking?

“…As a first step necessary to assess, explain, and improve the extent to which governments make forward-looking decisions, the concept of a forward-looking decision needs to be further conceptualized. Existing literature tends to focus on one aspect of these decisions, such as the use of scenarios and forecasting to support decisions (Havas & Weber, 2017; or choosing robust or flexible solutions Maier et al, 2016). Furthermore, the literature is often concerned with the long-term challenge of climate change (Dąbrowski, 2018;Lawrence et al, 2015;Lyles et al, 2018), whereas there are many more long-term challenges that governments need to consider to ensure the long-term effectiveness of infrastructure.…”

“…Several strands in the scholarly literature have looked at various aspects of forwardlooking decisions, but what constitutes forward looking remains unspecified or narrowly defined, often referring only to foresight (e.g. Dahlberg & Lindström, 1998;Gavetti & Levinthal, 2000;Havas & Weber, 2017). A forward-looking decision is however not the same as a decision that relies on foresight, nor entails the opposite of backward looking (i.e.…”

“…In the literature, forward-looking decisions are often equated with decisions that build on foresight (Dahlberg & Lindström, 1998;Gavetti & Levinthal, 2000). Foresight then refers to the exploration of futures, culminating in the formation of scenarios or joint visions (Amanatidou, 2017;Havas & Weber, 2017). In his book Governing for the long term, Jacobs looks at long-term investment decisions, defined as decisions that extract resources in the short term to invest in long-term benefits (2011, p. 17).…”

“…Such a perspective therefore does not help to elucidate the complex processes that cause decision makers to consider the future when deciding to invest in end-of-lifetime infrastructure. Furthermore, the literature does not provide a clear definition of a forward-looking decision or equates forward looking to the application of foresight and scenario methods (Havas & Weber, 2017;Iden et al, 2016). Without a clear definition of what constitutes a forward-looking decision, it is difficult to judge whether and how scenario methods influence public sector investment decisions Volkery & Ribeiro, 2009).…”