The Food Crises: A Quantitative Model of Food Prices Including Speculators and Ethanol Conversion

Lagi, Marco; Bar-Yam, Yavni; Bertrand, Karla Z.; Bar‐Yam, Yaneer

doi:10.2139/ssrn.1932247

Cited by 92 publications

(84 citation statements)

References 85 publications

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“…The wave of social unrest known as the Arab Spring was preceded by food riots, the result of spiking global food prices. In turn, the cause of the fluctuations in the food markets can be traced to commodities deregulation in the US, which allowed for rampant speculation, as well as ethanol fuel mandates which promoted the inefficient conversion of food into fuel (Lagi, Bertrand and Bar-Yam 2011a;Merchant 2014;Lagi et al 2011b). Similar policy decisions in the US precipitated the 2008 economic crisis, as well as other market crashes (Harmon et al 2011;Harmon et al 2010).…”

Section: Global Systemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recent global crises, including the global financial crisis, the global food crisis, social unrest including the Arab Spring, and the Ebola epidemic and other pandemics, have demonstrated that global connectivity leads to vulnerabilities due to the high rate of global travel, and the rapid propagation of economic and social influences (Lagi, Bertrand and Bar-Yam 2011a;Merchant 2014;Lagi et al 2011b;Harmon et al 2011;Harmon et al 2010;Rutherford et al 2014;Rauch and Bar-Yam 2006). Many of the key problems today have to do with 'indirect effects' of human activities that may have substantial destructive effects on the human condition.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Introduction to the strategy and methods of complex systems

Bar‐Yam¹

2018

Handbook of Research Methods in Complexity Science

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We describe a general approach to the correspondence of ZM theory with quantum electrodynamics. As a first step, we show the correspondence of helical clock-field states with plane wave states of the Dirac equation. Specifically, defining the direction of time as the gradient of the field in the combined field and space dimensions, for constant gradients, results in states that are consistent with conventional plane wave Dirac equation eigenfunctions. Particles and antiparticles, as well as up and down spins are related by axis inversions. The Dirac wavefunction represents the clock-field and the observer defined direction of time and spatial coordinate axes rotation relative to the region of observation. Additional steps showing the correspondence of ZM theory to quantum mechanics and the Dirac equation are deferred to subsequent papers.

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Section: Global Systemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Introduction to the strategy and methods of complex systems

Bar‐Yam¹

2018

Handbook of Research Methods in Complexity Science

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“…In early 2010 and late 2011, even higher food prices corresponded with riots in Mauritania, Uganda and other countries associated with the Arab Spring [44]. The root cause of these spikes in food prices is still being debated, although most researchers agree that resource competition due to biofuel production is a factor [45,46]. One thing is certain, as the demand for agricultural products increases due to rising biofuel production, growing populations and the improved economic status of billions, more will be asked of our land resources.…”

Section: Increased Demand For Agricultural Products: Rising Populatiomentioning

confidence: 99%

The Soil Degradation Paradox: Compromising Our Resources When We Need Them the Most

2015

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Soil degradation can take many forms, from erosion to salinization to the overall depletion of organic matter. The expression of soil degradation is broad, and so too are the causes. As the world population nears eight billion, and the environmental uncertainty of climate change becomes more manifest, the importance of our soil resources will only increase. The goal of this paper is to synthesize the catalysts of soil degradation and to highlight the interconnected nature of the social and economic causes of soil degradation. An expected three billion people will enter the middle class in the next 20 years; this will lead to an increased demand for meat, dairy products, and consequently grain. As populations rise so do the economic incentives to convert farmland to other purposes. With the intensity and frequency of droughts and flooding increasing, consumer confidence and the ability of crops to reach yield goals are also threatened. In a time of uncertainty, conservation measures are often the first to be sacrificed. In short, we are compromising our soil resources when we need them the most.

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“…The role of speculators in the spike of food prices has been hotly contested but a recent study by Lagi et al [22] has thrown new light and shows the impact of speculators in price increase has been greater than previously thought, as illustrated in Figure 1.…”

Section: Food Pricesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Lagi et al [22] updated their previous work (2011), constructed for the first time a dynamic model that quantitatively agreed with food prices, based on the FAO Food Price Index time series from January 2004 to March 2011, and updated to February 2012. The results showed that the dominant causes of price increases during this period were investor speculation and ethanol conversion.…”

Section: Food Pricesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Food versus Fuel: Toward a New Paradigm—The Need for a Holistic Approach

Rosillo-Calle

2012

ISRN Renewable Energy

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A key objective of this paper is to provide an assessment of the current and future situation on the "food versus fuel" debate and to contribute to possible alternatives to minimise or avoid future conflict. The debate has centred on three main areas: (i) food versus biofuel production, (ii) their positive and negative effects (i.e., GHG, climate change, and the broader environment), and (iii) a socioeconomic impact. The debate has been controversial because it has largely been driven by politics, ethical/moral considerations, and vested interests rather than by science. The paper focuses on food prices, land competition, GHG, energy balance, and energy subsidies and concerns with the rapid expansion of bioenergy for electricity and heat, climatic changes, the role of agriculture as a key factor, the potential of biomass energy resources, and the various alternatives to minimize or avoid conflict between food and fuel production. Biomass for energy is both "part of the problem and part of the solution." It proposes a holistic approach: a new paradigm that takes full account of the diverse and complex nature of biomass energy sources and states that the fundamental underlying causes are social injustice, inequality, waste, and so forth, rather than land competition for food and fuel.

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The Food Crises: A Quantitative Model of Food Prices Including Speculators and Ethanol Conversion

Cited by 92 publications

References 85 publications

Introduction to the strategy and methods of complex systems

Introduction to the strategy and methods of complex systems

The Soil Degradation Paradox: Compromising Our Resources When We Need Them the Most

Food versus Fuel: Toward a New Paradigm—The Need for a Holistic Approach

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